Wednesday, November 13, 2013

2013-14 NBA Western Conference Predictions

The NBA season is under way and that means it’s time for a NBA preview.Actually, it means we're a little over due for a NBA preview, but it's never too late to talk about the NBA. In this two part preview I will tackle projecting the NBA playoff picture in the Western Conference. My associate, Ryan, will project the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Let’s not delay this any further. Let the countdown begin!  
They’re young, they’re inexperienced, and they’re going to make the playoffs. Led by second year big man sensation, Anthony Davis, the Pelicans are an exciting athletic group of baby-faces that are ready to take the NBA by storm. Okay, maybe not by storm, but they will bring a light rain, and that’ll be good enough for an 8th seed out West.
The addition, or should I say theft of Jrue Holiday from the Philadelphia 76ers, gives this team a floor generally capable of leading them to the playoffs. While this team is probably a good 2-3 years from actually contending, they’ll be an entertaining watch all season long.
The Grizzlies drop a few spots in the Western Conference this year, but they’ll still make the playoffs and they’ll be a live dog for a first round upset. The 7th seed ranking isn’t so much based on feelings that I believe they’ve regressed; it has more to do with other teams improving in the off season. Memphis did not make a splash in free agency and they unjustifiably fired their coach, Lionel Hollins, a man who led them to the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs last season. Their playoff run included upsets over the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Somehow, that wasn’t enough for Hollins to keep his coaching gig in Memphis. Instead the Grizz brought in rookie head coach, David Joerger. I guess anytime you can replace a head coach that took your team deeper in the playoffs than any other coach in franchise history, with an unproven wildcard, you have to do it, right?   There wasn’t enough change in Memphis, and unfortunately the one move they did make was a mistake.
Kevin Love. This guy is a basketball player through and through. If I had man crushes, I would have one on him, but I don’t, so stop talking about it. He will lead the league in rebounds. He will win the defensive player of the year award. And he will also lead his team in scoring. Love is asked to be the best player on both ends of the floor, every night, in order for his team to be successful. (Please take a moment to appreciate the responsibility that is being tossed on the back of Love.) And successful they will be.
Ricky Rubio will emerge and finally take that giant step forward that everyone has been waiting for. Don’t be surprised when Love and Rubio find themselves in New Orleans for the 2014 All Star Game. The Wolves are primed to make things messy in the west, and I like it.
Run. Score. Run. Score. Run. Score. The Warriors are going to do a lot of both of these things, more than any other team in the league actually. Stephen Curry proved he belongs in this league and hushed his doubters. (Raises hand.) The kid can shoot, we knew that, but what has impressed me is that he’s a much better passer than I thought, and he has the ability to create his own shot, a must in order to be a consistent scorer in this league.
The addition of the uber athletic Andre Iguodala, to go along with the Warriors high speed offense, has a lot people picking the Warriors to go all the way to the NBA Finals. I think that’s asking a bit much at this point and may be an overreaction to their breakout playoff run last season. I love their talent on the offensive end, but I worry about their depth on defense. That lack of depth is going to make it tough for Golden State to compete with the big boys out West come playoff time.
I’m not that high on the Thunder, despite having them ranked 4th in the west. There are a lot of question marks surrounding this team. They have Kevin Durant who can score a mammoth amount of points, which is great, but I haven’t seen his game expand since he came into the league. Personally, I think the guy’s career is moving in the direction of Carmelo Anthony and away from the likes of LeBron James, who is undeniably the greatest basketball player in the Milky Way, still I do not like the way Durant’s career is trending. I would like to see him become a better passer and improve on the defensive end. He has been in the league long enough for these skills to have developed; I fear he may never live up to his full potential.
The Thunder also have Russell Westbrook, who actually showed me more by not playing last year. (Westbrook was injured in game 2 of the NBA playoffs in 2013.) With Westbrook playing cheerleader the Thunder seemed lost and were eventually knocked out by the aforementioned Grizzlies. Durant can score, but what else can he do? Does he make teammates better? I’m not sure. The Thunder’s championship window may be closed. 
Like a villain in a bad horror movie, the Spurs never die. I was 100% wrong when I wrote that they had, back in 2011, after they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs. But like the Spurs tend to do, they came back fighting and scrapped their way to a Chris Bosh rebound and a Ray Allen 3 in the final seconds of game 6 from winning the NBA title in 2013. I will never count the Spurs out again, and neither should you.
They have the best front office in all of sports. They make incredible decisions with all personnel, and that goes beyond basketball decisions. I’ve never been to a Spurs game, but I imagine you could eat off the toilet seats in the arena’s restrooms because management would instinctively hire the Michael Jordan’s of janitorial services to clean their facilities. San Antonio, we are not worthy.
Dwight Howard playing with a chip on his shoulder. Dwight Howard playing with a marquee scorer for the first time in his career. (Don’t kid yourself Laker fans, Kobe Bryant is no longer elite, and he never will be again.) Dwight Howard playing because he wants to play.
Howard was not happy in LA. He didn’t want to be there, I don’t think LA really wanted him there either. Howard was not playing to his ability at all. The greatest effort he did show was at the end of the year, after Bryant had been side-lined with injury. Well, now Howard is happy again and he doesn’t have to worry about a superstar passed their prime, being unwilling to pass the torch. Howard is the man in Houston and he’s ready to show it.
I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that Chris Paul is the second best player in the NBA, and in the 2013-2014 season he is going to prove it. Go ahead, tilt your head, raise your eyebrows, call me stupid. But by April, 27th 2014 you’ll be a believer. The guy can shoot, pass, defend, pretty much whatever needs to be done, Paul can do. The feeling out process with Blake Griffin is over; Paul knows what he has there.
The Clippers also made some offseason signings in Matt Barnes and JJ Reddick to improve their depth. Oh, and they also replaced one of the worst coaches in the NBA, Vinny Del Negro, with one of the best coaches in the NBA, Doc Rivers. The Clippers ceiling is high. If Rivers can turn “Lob City” into ”Lob n Lock City”, the Clippers will be waiting for whoever comes out the East.
Here’s how the playoffs will play out…
Predictions
First Round
(1)Clippers over (8)Pelicans in 5
Pelicans aren’t contenders yet. The Clippers will make quick work of these young guns.
(2)Rockets over (7)Grizzlies in 6
Grizzlies will put up a little fight, but Rockets should cruise into the second round fairly easy.
(3)Spurs over (6)Timberwolves in 7
I went back and forth on this one. Really wanted to take the Wolves, San Antonio is just too deep.
(5)Warriors over (4)Thunder in 6
This will be a really fun series. In the end the Warriors will simply outrun their opponent.
Conference Semi-finals
(1)Clippers over (5)Warriors in 7
Clippers depth will be the difference and Doc will have these guys playing proper defense come playoff time.
(2)Rockets over (3)Spurs in 6
The Lone-Star State showdown will be won by the Houston Rockets. Somewhere Mark Cuban will be crying. Too much James Harden and Howard will out work the Spurs bigs in the post.
Conference finals
(2)Rockets over (1)Clippers in 7
There will be new blood in the NBA Finals in 2014. Dwight Howard will finally get to the NBA’s biggest stage. Can he cement his legacy by adding a championship ring to his impressive NBA resume?

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