Dissecting Greatness: Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady

Peyton Manning is the unquestionable darling of the NFL. Announcers and analysts gush over him at every chance they get, and with every move he makes. It seems to have become an accepted fact that he is the greatest quarterback of all-time. He is great, and most definitely one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, but I’m not convinced he is even the greatest quarterback of his era, let alone all-time. My hypothesis is he is not the greatest quarterback of all time. Now, I’ll test that theory. 

His regular season numbers speak for themselves. They are almost unmatched, but not completely. Peyton Manning has just one Super Bowl under his belt and it’s been proven that the guy shrinks in big games. He cemented that in my mind with his return to Indianapolis to take on his former team, the Colts, earlier this season. Manning went back to Indy wearing the orange and blue of the Denver Broncos and got smashed by his old squad. The box score will show the Broncos only lost by 6 points, but they scored 16 of those points in a fourth quarter comeback attempt, that was futile. The game was out of reach early, when the Broncos fell behind of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, 36-17, in the middle of the 3^rd quarter.

Speaking of big games, it doesn’t get any bigger than the playoffs. Despite going to the playoffs 12 times in his career, Manning has won the Super Bowl only once. Of the 12 times he’s been to the NFL’s second season, he has been sent home 8 times after playing just one game. His career playoff record is 9-11. Am I really supposed to believe he’s the greatest of all-time with a dismal line like that?

We like Peyton Manning so we give him the benefit of the doubt and make excuses on his behalf. We like him because he has funny commercials (cut that meat - highly recommend watching) and can throw the hell out of a football. But the greatest players of all-time, in any sport, excel in the big game, they don’t collapse. Michael Jordan, Jack Nicklaus, Babe Ruth, never collapsed under the pressure. They dominated their rivals and left with the championship trophy in hand. Part of being “great” is how you play when the stakes are at their highest. No matter how many spectacular plays Manning makes during the regular season, there will always be a shadow cast upon his legacy due to his inept performances he displays when it matters most.

Tom Brady on the other hand has excelled in the big games. He has won the Super Bowl 3 times and has played in the big game a total of 5 times. His playoff record is an extremely impressive, 17-7! (Just a reminder, Manning’s record is 9-11.)

Oh and Mr. Brady’s regular season stats aren’t exactly Trent Dilfer like, who has also won one Super Bowl like Peyton. Brady is currently the holder of the most touchdowns ever thrown in one season with 50. Manning will flirt with that record in 2013, but he is currently behind Brady’s pace (as of 11/21/13) and has returned to earth after his astronomical start to the season, in which he did throw 7 touchdowns in week one.

Tom Brady has thrown less than 10 interceptions in a season three times in his career and in 2010 he threw 4, in the entire season, 4 interceptions. Manning has thrown less than 10 interceptions just once in his career; he had 9 back in 2006. Furthermore, Brady has never thrown more than 14 interceptions in a single season. The guy is abnormally accurate and makes fewer mistakes than a calculator. However, Manning is the guy the media praises for efficiency.  So, Manning must have never thrown more than 14 interceptions in a season either, right? Wrong. He has actually thrown 15 or more picks in 7 of his 16 years in the NFL. That includes the 28 he threw as a rookie and the 23 he threw during his fourth year in the league. 

Head-to-head these two superstars have squared off 13 times. The rivalry has been completely one-sided with Tom Brady walking off the field as the victor 9 times, versus only 4 victories for Peyton Manning. Both of these men are tremendous football players. If your team has either one of them behind the center, then you have an immediate advantage. But Tom Brady has more championships, makes fewer mistakes, and holds an insane amount of records. Still, Peyton Manning is the one a majority of people consider to be the greatest of all time, without even questioning it. I questioned it, and he is great, but my research concludes that he lacks the essentials to be called the greatest of all time. I'll take Tom Brady, but I'll give it some thought first.  

2013-14 NBA Western Conference Predictions

The NBA season is under way and that means it’s time for a NBA preview.Actually, it means we're a little over due for a NBA preview, but it's never too late to talk about the NBA. In this two part preview I will tackle projecting the NBA playoff picture in the Western Conference. My associate, Ryan, will project the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Let’s not delay this any further. Let the countdown begin!  

8. New Orleans Pelicans

They’re young, they’re inexperienced, and they’re going to make the playoffs. Led by second year big man sensation, Anthony Davis, the Pelicans are an exciting athletic group of baby-faces that are ready to take the NBA by storm. Okay, maybe not by storm, but they will bring a light rain, and that’ll be good enough for an 8th seed out West.

The addition, or should I say theft of Jrue Holiday from the Philadelphia 76ers, gives this team a floor generally capable of leading them to the playoffs. While this team is probably a good 2-3 years from actually contending, they’ll be an entertaining watch all season long.

7. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies drop a few spots in the Western Conference this year, but they’ll still make the playoffs and they’ll be a live dog for a first round upset. The 7th seed ranking isn’t so much based on feelings that I believe they’ve regressed; it has more to do with other teams improving in the off season. Memphis did not make a splash in free agency and they unjustifiably fired their coach, Lionel Hollins, a man who led them to the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs last season. Their playoff run included upsets over the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Somehow, that wasn’t enough for Hollins to keep his coaching gig in Memphis. Instead the Grizz brought in rookie head coach, David Joerger. I guess anytime you can replace a head coach that took your team deeper in the playoffs than any other coach in franchise history, with an unproven wildcard, you have to do it, right?   There wasn’t enough change in Memphis, and unfortunately the one move they did make was a mistake.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

Kevin Love. This guy is a basketball player through and through. If I had man crushes, I would have one on him, but I don’t, so stop talking about it. He will lead the league in rebounds. He will win the defensive player of the year award. And he will also lead his team in scoring. Love is asked to be the best player on both ends of the floor, every night, in order for his team to be successful. (Please take a moment to appreciate the responsibility that is being tossed on the back of Love.) And successful they will be.

Ricky Rubio will emerge and finally take that giant step forward that everyone has been waiting for. Don’t be surprised when Love and Rubio find themselves in New Orleans for the 2014 All Star Game. The Wolves are primed to make things messy in the west, and I like it.

5. Golden State Warriors

Run. Score. Run. Score. Run. Score. The Warriors are going to do a lot of both of these things, more than any other team in the league actually. Stephen Curry proved he belongs in this league and hushed his doubters. (Raises hand.) The kid can shoot, we knew that, but what has impressed me is that he’s a much better passer than I thought, and he has the ability to create his own shot, a must in order to be a consistent scorer in this league.

The addition of the uber athletic Andre Iguodala, to go along with the Warriors high speed offense, has a lot people picking the Warriors to go all the way to the NBA Finals. I think that’s asking a bit much at this point and may be an overreaction to their breakout playoff run last season. I love their talent on the offensive end, but I worry about their depth on defense. That lack of depth is going to make it tough for Golden State to compete with the big boys out West come playoff time.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

I’m not that high on the Thunder, despite having them ranked 4th in the west. There are a lot of question marks surrounding this team. They have Kevin Durant who can score a mammoth amount of points, which is great, but I haven’t seen his game expand since he came into the league. Personally, I think the guy’s career is moving in the direction of Carmelo Anthony and away from the likes of LeBron James, who is undeniably the greatest basketball player in the Milky Way, still I do not like the way Durant’s career is trending. I would like to see him become a better passer and improve on the defensive end. He has been in the league long enough for these skills to have developed; I fear he may never live up to his full potential.

The Thunder also have Russell Westbrook, who actually showed me more by not playing last year. (Westbrook was injured in game 2 of the NBA playoffs in 2013.) With Westbrook playing cheerleader the Thunder seemed lost and were eventually knocked out by the aforementioned Grizzlies. Durant can score, but what else can he do? Does he make teammates better? I’m not sure. The Thunder’s championship window may be closed. 

3. San Antonio Spurs

Like a villain in a bad horror movie, the Spurs never die. I was 100% wrong when I wrote that they had, back in 2011, after they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs. But like the Spurs tend to do, they came back fighting and scrapped their way to a Chris Bosh rebound and a Ray Allen 3 in the final seconds of game 6 from winning the NBA title in 2013. I will never count the Spurs out again, and neither should you.

They have the best front office in all of sports. They make incredible decisions with all personnel, and that goes beyond basketball decisions. I’ve never been to a Spurs game, but I imagine you could eat off the toilet seats in the arena’s restrooms because management would instinctively hire the Michael Jordan’s of janitorial services to clean their facilities. San Antonio, we are not worthy.

2. Houston Rockets

Dwight Howard playing with a chip on his shoulder. Dwight Howard playing with a marquee scorer for the first time in his career. (Don’t kid yourself Laker fans, Kobe Bryant is no longer elite, and he never will be again.) Dwight Howard playing because he wants to play.

Howard was not happy in LA. He didn’t want to be there, I don’t think LA really wanted him there either. Howard was not playing to his ability at all. The greatest effort he did show was at the end of the year, after Bryant had been side-lined with injury. Well, now Howard is happy again and he doesn’t have to worry about a superstar passed their prime, being unwilling to pass the torch. Howard is the man in Houston and he’s ready to show it.

1. Los Angeles Clippers

I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that Chris Paul is the second best player in the NBA, and in the 2013-2014 season he is going to prove it. Go ahead, tilt your head, raise your eyebrows, call me stupid. But by April, 27th 2014 you’ll be a believer. The guy can shoot, pass, defend, pretty much whatever needs to be done, Paul can do. The feeling out process with Blake Griffin is over; Paul knows what he has there.

The Clippers also made some offseason signings in Matt Barnes and JJ Reddick to improve their depth. Oh, and they also replaced one of the worst coaches in the NBA, Vinny Del Negro, with one of the best coaches in the NBA, Doc Rivers. The Clippers ceiling is high. If Rivers can turn “Lob City” into ”Lob n Lock City”, the Clippers will be waiting for whoever comes out the East.

Here’s how the playoffs will play out…

Predictions

First Round

(1)Clippers over (8)Pelicans in 5
Pelicans aren’t contenders yet. The Clippers will make quick work of these young guns.

(2)Rockets over (7)Grizzlies in 6
Grizzlies will put up a little fight, but Rockets should cruise into the second round fairly easy.

(3)Spurs over (6)Timberwolves in 7
I went back and forth on this one. Really wanted to take the Wolves, San Antonio is just too deep.

(5)Warriors over (4)Thunder in 6
This will be a really fun series. In the end the Warriors will simply outrun their opponent.

Conference Semi-finals

(1)Clippers over (5)Warriors in 7
Clippers depth will be the difference and Doc will have these guys playing proper defense come playoff time.

(2)Rockets over (3)Spurs in 6
The Lone-Star State showdown will be won by the Houston Rockets. Somewhere Mark Cuban will be crying. Too much James Harden and Howard will out work the Spurs bigs in the post.

Conference finals

(2)Rockets over (1)Clippers in 7
There will be new blood in the NBA Finals in 2014. Dwight Howard will finally get to the NBA’s biggest stage. Can he cement his legacy by adding a championship ring to his impressive NBA resume?

2013-14 NBA Eastern Conference Predictions

         The 2013-14 NBA season has begun and dissimilar to recent seasons the Eastern Conference is littered with threats to dethrone the Miami Heat.  To follow is a breakdown of how I feel the Eastern Conference standings will play out by seasons end. Then I will break down the outcomes of each series, leading to my wildly anticipated pick to be this years Finals representative out of the East.

8 – Atlanta Hawks

      Stuff I like: The Al Horford and Paul Milsap combo and double-teams that will leave Kyle Korver open.  Rebounding. Taking care of the ball will benefit this team and help compensate for the struggles defensively.  The Hawks edge out the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 8^th seed.

      Stuff I don't like: Gaping hole at small forward, where journeyman DeMarre Carroll brings his career 4.2 PPG on 42% from the field to the Hawks starting lineup.  Kyle Korver will slide there in spots, becoming a liability defensively and a one-dimensional offensive threat.  They will lack consistency defensively and will struggle to get even average perimeter performance.  Really thin bench as well.

7 – Milwaukee Bucks

Stuff I like: Great depth and a mostly veteran team.  Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova pose matchup problems for most East teams.  O.J. Mayo will benefit playing in small market Milwaukee because nobody will be watching him, unlike some instances in his playing career.  Luke Ridnour has always been productive and compliments the frontcourt with his ability to stretch the floor. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Undersized backcourt and will struggle to get guard penetration to spoon-feed the bigs.  Brandon Knight will be in a similar situation as he was in Detroit, with a crowded stable of ball-handlers around him.  It wasn’t a situation he thrived in with the Pistons and I don’t see a difference with this Bucks team as constructed. 

6 - New York Knicks

          Stuff I like: Carmelo Anthony is a pure scorer in his prime, and his numbers offensively will be up there amongst the NBA’s best throughout the season.  Raymond Felton is steady but lacks any game-changing qualities.  Andrea Bargnani compliments Melo nicely.  His floor spacing allows Anthony room to operate on the drive and adds a reliable kick out option.  If the Knicks play inside-out and get consistent penetration they are a dangerous offensive team.

         Stuff I don’t like: Tyson Chandler out 3-6 weeks sets them back.  J.R. Smith being a primary scoring option throughout games does not seem to be a recipe for success.  Defensively there are holes everywhere.  I don’t see where Iman Shumpert or Tim Hardaway Jr. fit within the framework of this roster.  The Knicks take a step back and a Melo soap opera regarding his impending free agency keep New York relevant, though they are not a title threat. 

 

5 – Detroit Pistons

         Stuff I like: Greg “Moose” Monroe looks to be a perfect fit at the Power Forward spot, and has been playing like a man that wants a big contract.  Resign him, now.  The Andre Drummond, Monroe, and Josh Smith frontline is only matched by the Pacers, and defensively the Pistons will be able to protect the rim.  Doing so will get the Pistons out in transition with regularity, catering nicely to the athleticism peppered all over this roster.  Brandon Jennings was a savvy signing to compliment this roster, and has made excellent decisions in the early going.  Jennings is also an underrated defensive player and does not have to shoot in volume to help this team win games.  It’s a great fit.

        

Stuff I don’t like: Chauncey Billups is not an NBA starter at this point in his career. The extended minutes he has played early on are troubling, though I anticipate they will decrease as the season progresses.  The bench rotation needs to be addressed and it lacks depth in the frontcourt.  Tony Mitchell is a raw prospect and expectations on his contributions should be tempered.  Jonas Jerebko is too undersized and lacks a clear skill set to play any particular frontline position.  Charlie Villanueva clearly is not good at NBA basketball, leaving little to work with in the frontcourt rotation.  Luigi Datome will eventually assume backup small forward duties, though he will be a liability defensively.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will eventually start at shooting guard, but his learning curve hinders the growth of the Pistons into a finals threat at least for this season.  Poor long-range shooting efficiency will be an Achilles heel as will free-throw shooting. 

4 – Brooklyn Nets

          Stuff I like: An abundance of talent.  Loaded frontcourt. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, playing in complimentary offensive roles, perfectly suited to what they are capable of bringing to the table at this stage of their careers.  Brook Lopez has the complete package as a center.  Deron Williams has four other players on the court with him that can all play the pick and roll two-man game with him.  This lineup works and the chemistry will come quickly. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Age sticks out.  Whether the Nets can hold up and avoid significant injury through the duration of the season will be critical.  Even the supporting cast is largely elderly.  Reggie Evans, Andrei Kirilenko, and Jason Terry all have key roles for the Nets and will need to be healthy and productive if the Nets are to compete at a championship level.

3 – Chicago Bulls

         Stuff I like: The Bulls get one of the NBA’s most dynamic talents back with the return of Derrick Rose.  The Bulls front line is still very imposing on both ends with Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer still very much at the peak of their powers.  The Bulls defend with more intensity than any other team in the East and can now get out in transition with Rose back at the helm. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: D-Rose is going to need some time to return to peak form, which will cost the Bulls seeding in the East.  The Bulls bench is relatively thin, particularly in the frontcourt where Taj Gibson is the only notable contributor.  Mike Dunleavy will not serve as the bench scorer he was enlisted to be, and will rely on being spoon-fed by Rose penetration.  If Dunleavy can get consistent looks on good execution he will still not shoot a high enough percentage to warrant his place in the rotation.  It’s a puzzling fit and I think the signing hurts Chicago this season.  Luol Deng is not an explosive enough player at the small forward position to take pressure off of Derrick Rose late in close games, and perimeter scoring overall will be limited for the Bulls. 

2 – Miami Heat

         Stuff I like: Lebron James is the greatest basketball player on planet Earth and he happens to play for the Heat.  Chris Bosh will have his most impactful season with the Heat. For the first time in his tenure he will be sought out by his teammates to contribute offensively on a consistent basis.  Ray Allen is still playing at a high level, and the Heat know exactly what they are and what they need to do in order to be successful. 

         Stuff I Don’t Like: Lebron's back hurts already.  Contributions from the Heat bench will not be as plentiful this season.  The Heat lack consistent point guard play and they are still soft inside.  Dwyane Wade will continue to regress, and the Heat logged major mileage on their key players through the last 3 seasons.  The Heat will not overpower the top-tier teams in the East with their talent this time around. 

1 – Indiana Pacers

        

Stuff I like: The Pacers have the look of a team that is hell-bent on a Finals run.  They have an unmatched front line with Roy Hibbert, David West, and emerging superstar Paul George.  The have the ‘energy guy’ in Lance Stephenson, and have become one of the deeper teams in the league with the return of Danny Granger, who was injured throughout last season’s conference finals run.  Granger gives the Pacers yet another offensive threat late in close games. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Guard play is an issue for the Pacers.  They will need more reliable ball-handling in order to dethrone the Heat.  Outside shooting will also need to be more consistent as teams will pack the paint on the Pacers ferocious front line.  It will be interesting to see how the Pacers execute down the stretch of close games now that Paul George is established as a superstar level player.  Their success lies in the framework of the inside-out offense and any deviation from that will spell trouble for the Pacers. 

Playoff Breakdown

Conference Quarterfinals

(1)Indiana over (8)Atlanta: 4-0

-                       -     The all business Pacers will dismantle the Hawks and the overmatched Atlanta bigs will not be able to compete with the superior Pacers frontcourt.  The Pacers handily advance to round 2. 

(4)Brooklyn over (5)Detroit: 4-3

      -    The upstart Pistons get a valuable learning experience in a 7 game slugfest with the Brooklyn Nets, eventually falling to a team with a critical size advantage at point guard.  Deron Williams ability to play with his back to the basket against the pesky Brandon Jennings will pay dividends for the Nets, and veteran Brooklyn big men will keep Andre Drummond in foul trouble and negate his impact, gaining a slight edge over feisty Detroit. 

(3) Chicago over (6)New York: 4-1

     -     The wildly disappointing Knicks will see their season end with a first round exit to the fiercely defensive minded Bulls.  The Melo free agent drama will be a huge distraction as the 2013-14 season comes to a close, and the Knicks will be faced with a pivotal crossroads heading into the 2014-15 season.  The Knicks will have no answer for a revitalized Derrick Rose.  Carlos Boozer will also have stellar performances throughout the series to carry the Bulls.  

(2) Miami over (7)Milwaukee: 4-0

     -     Chris Bosh’s ability to stretch the floor maintains Miami’s prominent offensive advantage in this series.  The Bucks will not be able to contain penetration and the Heat will toy with Milwaukee throughout a one-sided series. 

Conference Semi-Finals

(1)Indiana over (4)Brooklyn: 4-2

   -       On paper this series would seemingly be a 7 game thriller, however the second round will see Brooklyn’s age catching up with their declining SF/PF combination.  Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not be able to sustain high level performances throughout the series and the Pacers stout defense will eventually break the Nets.  Deron Williams will be forced to rely on his jumper and the Nets will struggle to control the paint.  Pacers move on.

(2) Miami over (3)Chicago: 4-3

   -       The most hyped of all the playoff rounds, this date with destiny for Chicago will end equally as sour as their previous attempts to defeat the Heat.  Derrick Rose as the only true scoring option eventually spells the collapse of the Bulls, who will give the Heat a grueling 7 game battle, but fail to come out on top.  Lebron will be too much for even the Bulls defense to handle. 

Conference Finals

(1)Indiana over (2) Miami: 4-3

 -         The rigorous second round series with Chicago will tire Miami, and be to much to overcome facing the brutal physicality of the Pacers. The Pacers will have dedicated their regular season to the goal of home court advantage against the Heat.  It will pay off, as Paul George will out-duel 2013-14 MVP Lebron James in a classic 7 game series for the ages.  The miles will catch up with the Heat’s big three and the Pacers will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.