Detroit Tigers fans
got an earlier than expected and
recklessly violent shove into the period of mourning that is endured after the final
out is recorded and the baseball season has officially concluded.
Bewildered by the blows rained down upon them
from
the baseball gods, Tigers fans watched their team leave Boston having
gift-wrapped the Red Sox an AL pennant.
Now the Tigers and their fans are faced with the winter months to
imagine what could have been, consider what went wrong, and remain perpetually
sulking until the rising temperatures of spring reinstate some
semblance of hope again.
A proven and long revered coping mechanism for
the infinite sadness that is an ALCS exit is looking to the season ahead.
In this case, the 2014 regular season, and
the promise of a Tigers roster that will once again be right in the mix to make
a run at a World Series championship.
Many roster issues contributed to
the Tigers departure from the 2013 post-season.
These were issues notable from the on-set of spring training and throughout
the course of the entire 2013 campaign.
With an in-depth glance into where the Tigers stand heading into 2014,
it is clear that many similar issues will plague this roster moving forward if
not addressed in the offseason. These
issues will be established and analyzed here for a very early snapshot of what
can be expected from a roster that is in need of some retooling if the 2014
Tigers are to make another deep run into the
postseason.
There are persistent arguments that
the offense and its reliance on slugging and big scoring innings is what caused
the eventual demise of the Tigers this past season. These arguments, though not the sole reason the Tigers were eliminated, are legitimate. The Tigers are a power hitting team and lack
the ability to manufacture runs consistently.
The Tigers lack a true base-stealing threat, and are ill-equipped to
play any sort of “small-ball” tactics with their current lineup. Although the offensive lapses and reliance on
power reared its ugly head during the 2013
postseason, it is likely that relief pitching will be focus of offseason free
agent spending for the Tigers.
Taking a look at the current
outlook for both the lineup and pitching, we can begin to assess what the Tigers
may prioritize this offseason.
To begin
we examine the Tigers lineup.
A lineup
that upon struggling offensively through the latter stages of the 2013 season was
uncharacteristically tweaked heading into Game 4 of the 2013 ALCS.
Manager
Jim Leyland abruptly
swapped out his previously solidified lead off man due to the aforementioned
lack of speed or any ability to consistently get on base to manufacture
runs.
Leyland shuffled the lineup with
the hope of getting base runners on from the top of the order.
Fittingly this is where we lead off the 2014
Tigers outlook.
The failure for the top
of the order to both get on base and move into scoring position is an issue
that will be prominent again in 2014.
The question surrounding Austin Jackson, whether he will regain his role and status as the team’s leadoff
hitter, is one that shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly. In jeopardy is the widely accepted
perspective that Jackson is a factor in base theft and manufactured runs. A glaring trend in Jackson’s numbers is his
stolen bases, which peaked 4 seasons ago with 28 in his rookie campaign and
have since fallen in each successive season. Jackson had only 8 steals in 2013. Though not exactly filling the role of ‘speedy lead-off guy’ for the
Tigers, there aren’t really any other options here that improve on what
Jackson has done. The same holds true in
terms of getting on base, with no other player significantly eclipsing
Jackson. Expect Jackson to once again be
the Tigers lead-off hitter in 2014 and for the team to lack a consistent base-stealing
threat. Here are the numbers for Jackson
stacked up against other Tigers lead-off candidates:
Austin Jackson: .272/.337/.754
Torii Hunter:
.304/.334/.800
Omar Infante:
.318/.345/.795
Austin Jackson: .278/.344/.759
Torii Hunter:
.279/.335/.801
Omar Infante:
.279/.319/.721
Johnny Peralta will not be in a Tigers uniform next season.
The Tigers proactively traded for the sure-handed
shortstop,
Jose Iglesias, when it became clear that Peralta
would be suspended for his involvement in the
recent Biogenesis allegations.
With
shortstop solidified for the long-term, Peralta becomes expendable heading into
2014.
He is not a capable everyday left
fielder despite what he brings to the table offensively.
Left field was also a question mark heading
into 2013, though
Andy Dirks,
Matt Tuiasosopo, and
Don Kelly
all served respectably in the role by committee.
In house candidates to fill this particular
void include top Tigers prospect
Nick Castellanos,
who will undoubtedly be given every opportunity in spring training to earn the
job. In 134 games with the Tigers AAA affiliate, the
Toledo Mud Hens, Castellanos hit .276 with a .343 OBP, hit 18 homers and drove in
76 runs in 2013. Should Castellanos be able to carry
his apparent power over to the big leagues he would make an ideal candidate, both in terms of production and financial value, for the Tigers to promote him to their everyday left
fielder.
Financially, Castellanos makes
the most sense for the Tigers moving forward and fans should not expect any big
acquisitions via free agency as was the case when the Tigers enlisted
Torii Hunter for right field duties last offseason.
It seems logical that the Tigers will see what they have with
Castellanos through spring training and to begin the 2014 season.
There’s always the trade deadline to make a
move and sure up that spot should Castellanos prove unready for the
promotion.
Notable free agents in the
outfield this winter are assumedly none that the Tigers would be interested in
pursuing given their current roster and payroll.
Left Field will be inherited by Castellanos
or will be once again a platoon effort in 2014.
That leaves
Omar Infante
as the Tigers most notable free agent offensively.
At the price Infante is likely to command,
it’s a nice fit for the Tigers and there’s every reason to believe the Tigers
will pursue a new deal with him.
Omar
has seen somewhat of a resurgence offensively in recent years, and in 2013 hit
a welcome .318 with 10 homers and drove in 51 runs from the lower third of the
lineup.
His value at the position is
unquestioned with the ability to hit for average and maintain consistency
defensively with his .980 fielding percentage in 2013, compared to the league
average of .985. One variable with resigning Infante is the potential for another team, one a bit more desperate for an upgrade at second base, offering
a contract the Tigers may not be willing to match.
A possibility that should not be overlooked
given the free agent class at second, headlined by
Robinson Cano. Omar Infante is arguably the next best prize at the position, making the likelihood for suitors more prevalent.
Consider Infante a solid bet to return as a
Tiger next year.
Then there’s
Prince Fielder.
Well……Fielder
speaks for himself.
The Tigers mortgaged a
large percentage of their resources on Fielder being a consistent
run producer and a game-breaking slugger.
In a post-game interview following Game 5 of the ALCS, Prince Fielder
indicated that he is "trying to hit the ball hard".
Despite what Prince says, he is not hitting the ball hard.
Prince advocates may argue the
increase in batting average to .295 in two seasons in Detroit from .282 through
his tenure with the Brewers merits his value. However, stats can be
deceiving.
Fielder’s .387 on-base-percentage
has slightly dropped from the .390 he put up in Milwaukee, coupled with a more
alarming .491 slugging percentage in the Old English compared to .540 with the
Brew Crew.
With
Miguel Cabrera and
Victor Martinez at the peak of their powers, Fielder has the potential to be the Tigers critical "X-factor". Whether or not the Tigers can reach a World Series
championship may be dependent on if Prince can regain the form he
displayed as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Without any drastic changes
expected on the lineup card for 2014, the focus then turns to another glaring
hole on this Tigers roster, relief pitching.
The Tigers have a significant amount of players in their bullpen
entering free agency this season, and how the Tigers address these needs will
be critical in their prospects for 2014 contention.
Most notably,
Joaquin Benoit will pose a dilemma for the Tigers front office as there will
certainly be suitors for his services. A determination will need to be made
in regards to his financial worth.
Determining Benoit's value is an interesting conundrum, as his performance during the
regular season may afford him leverage.
Benoit posted his best earned run average (2.01) since 2010 when he was
a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Also, he did so when called upon for an expanded
role, as he was asked during the season to take over as the Tigers closer in 2013. Benoit earned 24 saves in 25
opportunities, solidifying what was a glaring hole at the backend of the Tigers bullpen to begin the regular season.
Similar to the Infante contract situation, Benoit’s services may draw more aggressive offers than the Tigers
are in a position to match.
Benoit proved
to be a reliable closer this season, and financially it is leverage for Benoit
to earn what might be the final 'big' contract of his career.
Bruce Rondon
is being groomed as a closer, though in 2013, he posted a 3.45 ERA in just
over 28 innings pitched. With a 9.4 strike-outs per 9 innings rate, Rondon statistically was a slight
step down from Benoit’s 9.9 SO/9IP in 2013. With or without Benoit, Rondon will
be given another opportunity in 2014 to step into the closer role.
It is unlikely that the Tigers will pursue
a free agent closer given Benoit’s track record, his
cost vs. the market, and Rondon’s potential long-term.
Middle relief extending potentially
to the set-up role then becomes the focus in free agency for the Tigers.
Lefty free agents to be such as
Javier Lopez
and
Manny Parra may be considered.
The Tigers
top minor league prospects do not include any up and coming left-handed saviors,
though
Darin Downs and
Matt Hoffman
may be enough for the Tigers to get by in 2014.
Though the Tigers are deeper with righties out of the pen,
Jeremy Bonderman and
Octavio Dotel will not likely return, leaving some vacancies to be filled this
offseason.
Free agents are plentiful as
is typical of relief pitching, but there are no premiere names to zero in
on to ensure an overall upgrade.
Drew Smyly,
Jose Veras
(who will have his club option likely picked up by the Tigers) and
Al Alburquerque have solidified their spots in the bullpen, but there are
concerns with depth and overall strength of the bullpen heading into 2014. It is also the primary area by which the
Tigers could improve via a potential trade, one that will make most Tigers fans wince,
though may be the most fiscally sound approach to solving these issues while
also improving the team long-term.
Max Scherzer
is eligible for arbitration, and is entering the final year of his contract,
making him a very viable candidate for trade given his currently undeniable
value.
The haul the Tigers could
assumedly get back for their
Cy Young candidate makes this option all too real
to Tigers fans.
An option that may be explored
by MLB’s resident
trade-master general, Dave Dombrowski, so expect these rumors to persist as
the winter meetings
approach.
Overall, the proverbial window is
certainly not closed for this AL Central giant heading into 2014. The Tigers will be in position to make
another run at the Central Division title, while pursuing Detroit’s first World
Series title since 1984. They will
however have to do so without Jim Leyland, the team’s manager of eight seasons,
as Leyland announced his retirement via a news conference on October 21st,
2013. One of the most respected
individuals in professional sports, Leyland’s presence is a void that cannot be
replaced via free agency or through a blockbuster trade. Leyland’s one of a kind, call a ‘spade’ a
‘spade’ approach to managing while often wearing his heart on his sleeve, (not
to mention his 50+ years experience in the game), is something that cannot and
will not be replaced this offseason or any other offseason. The game of baseball lost one of its great
managers on Monday, and the Tigers will enter the offseason with a slew of
unanswered questions, including who will steer the ship in 2014. Resume sulking.
