Detroit Tigers: 2014 at a Glance

Detroit Tigers fans got an earlier than expected and recklessly violent shove into the period of mourning that is endured after the final out is recorded and the baseball season has officially concluded.  Bewildered by the blows rained down upon them from the baseball gods, Tigers fans watched their team leave Boston having gift-wrapped the Red Sox an AL pennant.  Now the Tigers and their fans are faced with the winter months to imagine what could have been, consider what went wrong, and remain perpetually sulking until the rising temperatures of spring reinstate some semblance of hope again.  A proven and long revered coping mechanism for the infinite sadness that is an ALCS exit is looking to the season ahead.  In this case, the 2014 regular season, and the promise of a Tigers roster that will once again be right in the mix to make a run at a World Series championship. 

Many roster issues contributed to the Tigers departure from the 2013 post-season.  These were issues notable from the on-set of spring training and throughout the course of the entire 2013 campaign.  With an in-depth glance into where the Tigers stand heading into 2014, it is clear that many similar issues will plague this roster moving forward if not addressed in the offseason.  These issues will be established and analyzed here for a very early snapshot of what can be expected from a roster that is in need of some retooling if the 2014 Tigers are to make another deep run into the postseason. 

There are persistent arguments that the offense and its reliance on slugging and big scoring innings is what caused the eventual demise of the Tigers this past season.  These arguments, though not the sole reason the Tigers were eliminated, are legitimate.  The Tigers are a power hitting team and lack the ability to manufacture runs consistently.  The Tigers lack a true base-stealing threat, and are ill-equipped to play any sort of “small-ball” tactics with their current lineup.  Although the offensive lapses and reliance on power reared its ugly head during the 2013 postseason, it is likely that relief pitching will be focus of offseason free agent spending for the Tigers.

Taking a look at the current outlook for both the lineup and pitching, we can begin to assess what the Tigers may prioritize this offseason.  To begin we examine the Tigers lineup.  A lineup that upon struggling offensively through the latter stages of the 2013 season was uncharacteristically tweaked heading into Game 4 of the 2013 ALCS.  Manager Jim Leyland abruptly swapped out his previously solidified lead off man due to the aforementioned lack of speed or any ability to consistently get on base to manufacture runs.  Leyland shuffled the lineup with the hope of getting base runners on from the top of the order.  Fittingly this is where we lead off the 2014 Tigers outlook.   The failure for the top of the order to both get on base and move into scoring position is an issue that will be prominent again in 2014.  

             The question surrounding Austin Jackson, whether he will regain his role and status as the team’s leadoff hitter, is one that shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly.  In jeopardy is the widely accepted perspective that Jackson is a factor in base theft and manufactured runs.  A glaring trend in Jackson’s numbers is his stolen bases, which peaked 4 seasons ago with 28 in his rookie campaign and have since fallen in each successive season.  Jackson had only 8 steals in 2013.  Though not exactly filling the role of ‘speedy lead-off guy’ for the Tigers, there aren’t really any other options here that improve on what Jackson has done.  The same holds true in terms of getting on base, with no other player significantly eclipsing Jackson.  Expect Jackson to once again be the Tigers lead-off hitter in 2014 and for the team to lack a consistent base-stealing threat.  Here are the numbers for Jackson stacked up against other Tigers lead-off candidates:

2013:   (AVG, OBP, OPS)

Austin Jackson: .272/.337/.754

Torii Hunter:  .304/.334/.800

Omar Infante:  .318/.345/.795

Career:

Austin Jackson: .278/.344/.759

Torii Hunter:  .279/.335/.801

Omar Infante:  .279/.319/.721

Johnny Peralta will not be in a Tigers uniform next season.  The Tigers proactively traded for the sure-handed shortstop, Jose Iglesias, when it became clear that Peralta would be suspended for his involvement in the recent Biogenesis allegations.  With shortstop solidified for the long-term, Peralta becomes expendable heading into 2014.  He is not a capable everyday left fielder despite what he brings to the table offensively.  Left field was also a question mark heading into 2013, though Andy Dirks, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Don Kelly all served respectably in the role by committee.  In house candidates to fill this particular void include top Tigers prospect Nick Castellanos, who will undoubtedly be given every opportunity in spring training to earn the job.  In 134 games with the Tigers AAA affiliate, the Toledo Mud Hens, Castellanos hit .276 with a .343 OBP, hit 18 homers and drove in 76 runs in 2013.  Should Castellanos be able to carry his apparent power over to the big leagues he would make an ideal candidate, both in terms of production and financial value, for the Tigers to promote him to their everyday left fielder.  Financially, Castellanos makes the most sense for the Tigers moving forward and fans should not expect any big acquisitions via free agency as was the case when the Tigers enlisted Torii Hunter for right field duties last offseason.  It seems logical that the Tigers will see what they have with Castellanos through spring training and to begin the 2014 season.  There’s always the trade deadline to make a move and sure up that spot should Castellanos prove unready for the promotion.  Notable free agents in the outfield this winter are assumedly none that the Tigers would be interested in pursuing given their current roster and payroll.  Left Field will be inherited by Castellanos or will be once again a platoon effort in 2014. 

That leaves Omar Infante as the Tigers most notable free agent offensively.  At the price Infante is likely to command, it’s a nice fit for the Tigers and there’s every reason to believe the Tigers will pursue a new deal with him.  Omar has seen somewhat of a resurgence offensively in recent years, and in 2013 hit a welcome .318 with 10 homers and drove in 51 runs from the lower third of the lineup.  His value at the position is unquestioned with the ability to hit for average and maintain consistency defensively with his .980 fielding percentage in 2013, compared to the league average of .985.  One variable with resigning Infante is the potential for another team, one a bit more desperate for an upgrade at second base, offering a contract the Tigers may not be willing to match.  A possibility that should not be overlooked given the free agent class at second, headlined by Robinson Cano.  Omar Infante is arguably the next best prize at the position, making the likelihood for suitors more prevalent.  Consider Infante a solid bet to return as a Tiger next year.

Then there’s Prince Fielder.  Well……Fielder speaks for himself.  The Tigers mortgaged a large percentage of their resources on Fielder being a consistent run producer and a game-breaking slugger.  In a post-game interview following Game 5 of the ALCS, Prince Fielder indicated that he is "trying to hit the ball hard".  Despite what Prince says, he is not hitting the ball hard.  Prince advocates may argue the increase in batting average to .295 in two seasons in Detroit from .282 through his tenure with the Brewers merits his value.  However, stats can be deceiving.  Fielder’s .387 on-base-percentage has slightly dropped from the .390 he put up in Milwaukee, coupled with a more alarming .491 slugging percentage in the Old English compared to .540 with the Brew Crew.  With Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez at the peak of their powers, Fielder has the potential to be the Tigers critical "X-factor".  Whether or not the Tigers can reach a World Series championship may be dependent on if Prince can regain the form he displayed as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.  

Without any drastic changes expected on the lineup card for 2014, the focus then turns to another glaring hole on this Tigers roster, relief pitching.  The Tigers have a significant amount of players in their bullpen entering free agency this season, and how the Tigers address these needs will be critical in their prospects for 2014 contention.  Most notably, Joaquin Benoit will pose a dilemma for the Tigers front office as there will certainly be suitors for his services.  A determination will need to be made in regards to his financial worth.  Determining Benoit's value is an interesting conundrum, as his performance during the regular season may afford him leverage.  Benoit posted his best earned run average (2.01) since 2010 when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.  Also, he did so when called upon for an expanded role, as he was asked during the season to take over as the Tigers closer in 2013.  Benoit earned 24 saves in 25 opportunities, solidifying what was a glaring hole at the backend of the Tigers bullpen to begin the regular season.  Similar to the Infante contract situation, Benoit’s services may draw more aggressive offers than the Tigers are in a position to match.  Benoit proved to be a reliable closer this season, and financially it is leverage for Benoit to earn what might be the final 'big' contract of his career.  Bruce Rondon is being groomed as a closer, though in 2013, he posted a 3.45 ERA in just over 28 innings pitched.  With a 9.4 strike-outs per 9 innings rate, Rondon statistically was a slight step down from Benoit’s 9.9 SO/9IP in 2013. With or without Benoit, Rondon will be given another opportunity in 2014 to step into the closer role.  It is unlikely that the Tigers will pursue a free agent closer given Benoit’s track record, his cost vs. the market, and Rondon’s potential long-term. 

Middle relief extending potentially to the set-up role then becomes the focus in free agency for the Tigers.  Lefty free agents to be such as Javier Lopez and Manny Parra may be considered.  The Tigers top minor league prospects do not include any up and coming left-handed saviors, though Darin Downs and Matt Hoffman may be enough for the Tigers to get by in 2014.  Though the Tigers are deeper with righties out of the pen, Jeremy Bonderman and Octavio Dotel will not likely return, leaving some vacancies to be filled this offseason.  Free agents are plentiful as is typical of relief pitching, but there are no premiere names to zero in on to ensure an overall upgrade.  Drew Smyly, Jose Veras (who will have his club option likely picked up by the Tigers) and Al Alburquerque have solidified their spots in the bullpen, but there are concerns with depth and overall strength of the bullpen heading into 2014.  It is also the primary area by which the Tigers could improve via a potential trade, one that will make most Tigers fans wince, though may be the most fiscally sound approach to solving these issues while also improving the team long-term.  Max Scherzer is eligible for arbitration, and is entering the final year of his contract, making him a very viable candidate for trade given his currently undeniable value.  The haul the Tigers could assumedly get back for their Cy Young candidate makes this option all too real to Tigers fans.   An option that may be explored by MLB’s resident trade-master general, Dave Dombrowski, so expect these rumors to persist as the winter meetings approach. 

Overall, the proverbial window is certainly not closed for this AL Central giant heading into 2014.   The Tigers will be in position to make another run at the Central Division title, while pursuing Detroit’s first World Series title since 1984.  They will however have to do so without Jim Leyland, the team’s manager of eight seasons, as Leyland announced his retirement via a news conference on October 21^st, 2013.  One of the most respected individuals in professional sports, Leyland’s presence is a void that cannot be replaced via free agency or through a blockbuster trade.  Leyland’s one of a kind, call a ‘spade’ a ‘spade’ approach to managing while often wearing his heart on his sleeve, (not to mention his 50+ years experience in the game), is something that cannot and will not be replaced this offseason or any other offseason.  The game of baseball lost one of its great managers on Monday, and the Tigers will enter the offseason with a slew of unanswered questions, including who will steer the ship in 2014.  Resume sulking.

Justin "Wild Thing" Verlander?

On October 5^th 2013, Detroit Tigers ace, Justin Verlander, and Oakland A’s rookie sensation, Sonny Gray, put on a pitching duel for the ages. Neither pitcher gave up a run and they combined for 20 strikeouts. The A’s would go on to win Game 2 of the ALDS 1-0, the best of five series was even at one game apiece. During most Tigers games and all playoff games I text with longtime friend and fellow Tigers die hard, Ryan. The texts usually include pessimistic dialogue and sarcastic remarks directed towards our own players. This game was no different. Early in the game we were nervous. If you follow baseball you know Justin Verlander wasn’t exactly himself this year. We were waiting for him to blow it. As innings passed our excitement grew and we noticed something very interesting: Justin Verlander was Rick Vaughn.

If for some reason you have not seen the Major League movies, starring Charlie Sheen as Rick Vaughn, at least hundred times, well shame on you. But I will quickly summarize the first movie before diving into the sequel, where our comparisons begin.

Major League, the first installment of the movie trilogy, is centered around a bunch of outcasts, has-beens, and forgotten professional baseball players who make up the budget-less Cleveland Indians. As you can probably predict, since it’s a Hollywood scripted story, this rag tag bunch of nobodies overcame the seemingly insurmountable odds and claimed the glory that comes with winning the pennant.

Which leads us to Major League 2. No longer under the radar, the Cleveland Indians are now full of superstars. The former nobodies were now finding themselves shooting commercials, making movies, and going to lavish parties. The added attention takes a toll on the team as they struggle to perform on the field. These struggles are particularly evident in the former pitching stud, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn.

In 2011 Justin Verlander won both the Cy Young and MVP awards, a feat that has only been accomplished by 7 other men in the history of professional baseball. After his historic season, in which he won 24 games and struck out 250 batters, both good enough to lead the majors, Verlander became recognized as the greatest pitcher on earth. He was compensated as such and the endorsement deals popped up faster than Prince Fielder in a clutch-hitting situation. JV, as us Tiger fans refer to him, also started dating supermodel Kate Upton. This was the beginning of his demise.

Similarly, in Major League 2, Rick Vaughn began shooting commercials and dating models. He became more interested in his wallet and appearances, and less interested in perfecting his craft. Vaughn could no longer throw a fastball, or as he puts it in the film, “I can’t believe I forget how to throw the heat.”

In 2013 the average speed of Verlander’s devastating fastball dropped about 4mph, through much of season. Which may not sound like a whole lot, but ask David Ortiz if he’d rather see a 97mph fastball or a 93mph fastball, and he’ll adamantly state the latter.

It was a sad year. JV had lost his fastball and began trying to compensate by throwing an absurd amount of curveballs that simply did not curve. Opposing hitters were smashing Verlander’s pitches like an angry Bruce Banner. It was apparent to Tiger’s fans that JV had become more concerned with making out with the hot supermodel and checking his stock portfolio, that he forgot his roots. The once untouchable Verlander was human, hell he looked average at best. But a movie can’t end with the protagonist walking down a lonely road of shame, can it?

The Indians made the playoffs despite their struggles and found themselves in a battle with the Chicago White Sox. Vaughn, disgusted at the corporate puppet he had become, vowed to regain his rightful position as the dominant force in pitching.

As “Wild Thing” by The Troggs blares throughout the stadium speakers Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn emerges from the bullpen. Equipped with his cut-off leather jacket, skull and crossbow bedazzled eyeglasses that fans had loved from the original Major League flick, the Indians stud had returned. Long story short, Vaughn dominated and everybody lived happily ever after.

October 10^th, 2013. Game 5. The Detroit Tigers versus the Oakland A’s in Oakland, California. The winner moves on to the ALCS to face the powerful Boston Red Sox, the loser goes home and starts booking vacation plans for the winter. The season is on the line and the burden of pressure falls on the shoulders of Justin Verlander.

We all know what happened. Verlander carved through the A’s like a top prized jack-o-lantern at the county fair. JV had transformed back to his dominant self that had propelled him into superstardom. The events unfolded like a perfectly polished Hollywood script that Ron Howard would be proud to direct. Justin Verlander had remembered how to throw the heat.