2013-14 NBA Eastern Conference Predictions

         The 2013-14 NBA season has begun and dissimilar to recent seasons the Eastern Conference is littered with threats to dethrone the Miami Heat.  To follow is a breakdown of how I feel the Eastern Conference standings will play out by seasons end. Then I will break down the outcomes of each series, leading to my wildly anticipated pick to be this years Finals representative out of the East.

8 – Atlanta Hawks

      Stuff I like: The Al Horford and Paul Milsap combo and double-teams that will leave Kyle Korver open.  Rebounding. Taking care of the ball will benefit this team and help compensate for the struggles defensively.  The Hawks edge out the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 8^th seed.

      Stuff I don't like: Gaping hole at small forward, where journeyman DeMarre Carroll brings his career 4.2 PPG on 42% from the field to the Hawks starting lineup.  Kyle Korver will slide there in spots, becoming a liability defensively and a one-dimensional offensive threat.  They will lack consistency defensively and will struggle to get even average perimeter performance.  Really thin bench as well.

7 – Milwaukee Bucks

Stuff I like: Great depth and a mostly veteran team.  Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova pose matchup problems for most East teams.  O.J. Mayo will benefit playing in small market Milwaukee because nobody will be watching him, unlike some instances in his playing career.  Luke Ridnour has always been productive and compliments the frontcourt with his ability to stretch the floor. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Undersized backcourt and will struggle to get guard penetration to spoon-feed the bigs.  Brandon Knight will be in a similar situation as he was in Detroit, with a crowded stable of ball-handlers around him.  It wasn’t a situation he thrived in with the Pistons and I don’t see a difference with this Bucks team as constructed. 

6 - New York Knicks

          Stuff I like: Carmelo Anthony is a pure scorer in his prime, and his numbers offensively will be up there amongst the NBA’s best throughout the season.  Raymond Felton is steady but lacks any game-changing qualities.  Andrea Bargnani compliments Melo nicely.  His floor spacing allows Anthony room to operate on the drive and adds a reliable kick out option.  If the Knicks play inside-out and get consistent penetration they are a dangerous offensive team.

         Stuff I don’t like: Tyson Chandler out 3-6 weeks sets them back.  J.R. Smith being a primary scoring option throughout games does not seem to be a recipe for success.  Defensively there are holes everywhere.  I don’t see where Iman Shumpert or Tim Hardaway Jr. fit within the framework of this roster.  The Knicks take a step back and a Melo soap opera regarding his impending free agency keep New York relevant, though they are not a title threat. 

 

5 – Detroit Pistons

         Stuff I like: Greg “Moose” Monroe looks to be a perfect fit at the Power Forward spot, and has been playing like a man that wants a big contract.  Resign him, now.  The Andre Drummond, Monroe, and Josh Smith frontline is only matched by the Pacers, and defensively the Pistons will be able to protect the rim.  Doing so will get the Pistons out in transition with regularity, catering nicely to the athleticism peppered all over this roster.  Brandon Jennings was a savvy signing to compliment this roster, and has made excellent decisions in the early going.  Jennings is also an underrated defensive player and does not have to shoot in volume to help this team win games.  It’s a great fit.

        

Stuff I don’t like: Chauncey Billups is not an NBA starter at this point in his career. The extended minutes he has played early on are troubling, though I anticipate they will decrease as the season progresses.  The bench rotation needs to be addressed and it lacks depth in the frontcourt.  Tony Mitchell is a raw prospect and expectations on his contributions should be tempered.  Jonas Jerebko is too undersized and lacks a clear skill set to play any particular frontline position.  Charlie Villanueva clearly is not good at NBA basketball, leaving little to work with in the frontcourt rotation.  Luigi Datome will eventually assume backup small forward duties, though he will be a liability defensively.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will eventually start at shooting guard, but his learning curve hinders the growth of the Pistons into a finals threat at least for this season.  Poor long-range shooting efficiency will be an Achilles heel as will free-throw shooting. 

4 – Brooklyn Nets

          Stuff I like: An abundance of talent.  Loaded frontcourt. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, playing in complimentary offensive roles, perfectly suited to what they are capable of bringing to the table at this stage of their careers.  Brook Lopez has the complete package as a center.  Deron Williams has four other players on the court with him that can all play the pick and roll two-man game with him.  This lineup works and the chemistry will come quickly. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Age sticks out.  Whether the Nets can hold up and avoid significant injury through the duration of the season will be critical.  Even the supporting cast is largely elderly.  Reggie Evans, Andrei Kirilenko, and Jason Terry all have key roles for the Nets and will need to be healthy and productive if the Nets are to compete at a championship level.

3 – Chicago Bulls

         Stuff I like: The Bulls get one of the NBA’s most dynamic talents back with the return of Derrick Rose.  The Bulls front line is still very imposing on both ends with Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer still very much at the peak of their powers.  The Bulls defend with more intensity than any other team in the East and can now get out in transition with Rose back at the helm. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: D-Rose is going to need some time to return to peak form, which will cost the Bulls seeding in the East.  The Bulls bench is relatively thin, particularly in the frontcourt where Taj Gibson is the only notable contributor.  Mike Dunleavy will not serve as the bench scorer he was enlisted to be, and will rely on being spoon-fed by Rose penetration.  If Dunleavy can get consistent looks on good execution he will still not shoot a high enough percentage to warrant his place in the rotation.  It’s a puzzling fit and I think the signing hurts Chicago this season.  Luol Deng is not an explosive enough player at the small forward position to take pressure off of Derrick Rose late in close games, and perimeter scoring overall will be limited for the Bulls. 

2 – Miami Heat

         Stuff I like: Lebron James is the greatest basketball player on planet Earth and he happens to play for the Heat.  Chris Bosh will have his most impactful season with the Heat. For the first time in his tenure he will be sought out by his teammates to contribute offensively on a consistent basis.  Ray Allen is still playing at a high level, and the Heat know exactly what they are and what they need to do in order to be successful. 

         Stuff I Don’t Like: Lebron's back hurts already.  Contributions from the Heat bench will not be as plentiful this season.  The Heat lack consistent point guard play and they are still soft inside.  Dwyane Wade will continue to regress, and the Heat logged major mileage on their key players through the last 3 seasons.  The Heat will not overpower the top-tier teams in the East with their talent this time around. 

1 – Indiana Pacers

        

Stuff I like: The Pacers have the look of a team that is hell-bent on a Finals run.  They have an unmatched front line with Roy Hibbert, David West, and emerging superstar Paul George.  The have the ‘energy guy’ in Lance Stephenson, and have become one of the deeper teams in the league with the return of Danny Granger, who was injured throughout last season’s conference finals run.  Granger gives the Pacers yet another offensive threat late in close games. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Guard play is an issue for the Pacers.  They will need more reliable ball-handling in order to dethrone the Heat.  Outside shooting will also need to be more consistent as teams will pack the paint on the Pacers ferocious front line.  It will be interesting to see how the Pacers execute down the stretch of close games now that Paul George is established as a superstar level player.  Their success lies in the framework of the inside-out offense and any deviation from that will spell trouble for the Pacers. 

Playoff Breakdown

Conference Quarterfinals

(1)Indiana over (8)Atlanta: 4-0

-                       -     The all business Pacers will dismantle the Hawks and the overmatched Atlanta bigs will not be able to compete with the superior Pacers frontcourt.  The Pacers handily advance to round 2. 

(4)Brooklyn over (5)Detroit: 4-3

      -    The upstart Pistons get a valuable learning experience in a 7 game slugfest with the Brooklyn Nets, eventually falling to a team with a critical size advantage at point guard.  Deron Williams ability to play with his back to the basket against the pesky Brandon Jennings will pay dividends for the Nets, and veteran Brooklyn big men will keep Andre Drummond in foul trouble and negate his impact, gaining a slight edge over feisty Detroit. 

(3) Chicago over (6)New York: 4-1

     -     The wildly disappointing Knicks will see their season end with a first round exit to the fiercely defensive minded Bulls.  The Melo free agent drama will be a huge distraction as the 2013-14 season comes to a close, and the Knicks will be faced with a pivotal crossroads heading into the 2014-15 season.  The Knicks will have no answer for a revitalized Derrick Rose.  Carlos Boozer will also have stellar performances throughout the series to carry the Bulls.  

(2) Miami over (7)Milwaukee: 4-0

     -     Chris Bosh’s ability to stretch the floor maintains Miami’s prominent offensive advantage in this series.  The Bucks will not be able to contain penetration and the Heat will toy with Milwaukee throughout a one-sided series. 

Conference Semi-Finals

(1)Indiana over (4)Brooklyn: 4-2

   -       On paper this series would seemingly be a 7 game thriller, however the second round will see Brooklyn’s age catching up with their declining SF/PF combination.  Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not be able to sustain high level performances throughout the series and the Pacers stout defense will eventually break the Nets.  Deron Williams will be forced to rely on his jumper and the Nets will struggle to control the paint.  Pacers move on.

(2) Miami over (3)Chicago: 4-3

   -       The most hyped of all the playoff rounds, this date with destiny for Chicago will end equally as sour as their previous attempts to defeat the Heat.  Derrick Rose as the only true scoring option eventually spells the collapse of the Bulls, who will give the Heat a grueling 7 game battle, but fail to come out on top.  Lebron will be too much for even the Bulls defense to handle. 

Conference Finals

(1)Indiana over (2) Miami: 4-3

 -         The rigorous second round series with Chicago will tire Miami, and be to much to overcome facing the brutal physicality of the Pacers. The Pacers will have dedicated their regular season to the goal of home court advantage against the Heat.  It will pay off, as Paul George will out-duel 2013-14 MVP Lebron James in a classic 7 game series for the ages.  The miles will catch up with the Heat’s big three and the Pacers will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.