AFC East
Buffalo Bills -230
The overwhelming favorite to win the division; the favorite
to win the Conference and the Super Bowl, the Bills have high expectations and
anything less than a deep playoff run will be a disappointment. Their leader,
Josh Allen, just keeps getting better and better. Though, his passing yards
were down a tad and he did throw 15 INTs (most in his career), he also added
763 yards rushing – his highest total of his first 4 years. If Allen continues
to improve, the Bills might finally get that monkey off their back and be
crowned Super Bowl Champions. But these are the Bills and history is not on
their side.
Their offence should operate mostly the same. They replaced
Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley (both of whom still don’t have jobs) with
Jamison Crowder, who if can stay healthy, and that’s a BIG IF, will be an
upgrade as a 3rd option for Allen behind Stephon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. The Bills
also signed a couple experienced guards for added protection for Allen and to open
those running lanes – defenses watch out!
While they have loss some depth on the d-line , they added a
2x Super Bowl winner, 1-time Super Bowl MVP, and straight up superstar in Von
Miller. His leadership and experience may be what this Bill’s team has been
looking for.
Miami Dolphins +450
Man, how times have changed… The Patriots aren’t even the 2nd
favorite to win the division after being the favorite for the better part of 20
years...
In 2022 the Miami Dolphins are looking to claim their stake
as a true contender. Don't get too excited Miami - a lot of things will need to go right - starting with the
quarterback play by Tua Tagovailoa. Sure he now has one of the most unique
weapons in the NFL to throw to in Tyreek Hill, but I’m far from buying the
Miami hype. Praise of Tua’s accuracy is great and all, but getting it done in
practice while wearing a red shirt is very different than getting it done on
Sundays when defenses are allowed to hit you.
Besides Hill, Miami improved their offence with the
additions of running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds. Throw them along
Miles Gaskin and they have 3 backs they can catch, run, dodge, dip, dive, and dodge... they should be
able to run fresh legs out there more often than not - which is a huge bonus in today's league.
The already formidable defense should see some
improvements too. I think this will be a tough - tough football team, but I think
they are a quarterback away from being a real contender. This very well may be Tua’s
lost chance in Miami and if that’s the case, I think the Dolphins will be a
team to keep an eye on in 2023 and beyond.
New England Patriots +500
I’ve been watching Man in the Arena and while the focus of
the doc is on Brady, you really get a sense that a large portion of the mentality
the Patriots played with, especially in Brady’s early years, csme from
Belichick. Seems like his style of motivation really inspired the players and got them to play at the elite level they did. When
their dynasty started though, it was a completely different world that we lived
in. I’m not so sure Belichick’s style of coaching/motivating can still reach
these young kids coming into the league. Not to say they are soft, because any
man that plays in the NFL is far from soft, at least physically, but they might
be too emotionally fragile to buy in to Belichick’s ways. No participation ribbons in New England.
Or it could simply be the Patriots no longer have the
greatest QB to ever play. It could be the weapons around Mac Jones, or even Mac
Jones himself, just aren’t good enough. They tried to improve a little bit on
offense. Devante Parker coming over should be a significant upgrade over N’keal
Harry, who never even got close to living up to his draft position. Still, I think
they could have made a bigger splash in the WR pool. We'll see if the dip they did make was enough.
New York Jets +2800
SMH. I’m not wasting my time or efforts on the Jets. Another
season over before it even begins.
The pick: Bills -230 I’m not betting this one, but I truly
believe the Bills win the division easily, unless Allen goes down that is. No
jinx! I just have a rule about betting such a heavy favorite on a season price.
Worth a gamble: Patriots +500 Maybe Allen does go down. Maybe Mac improves in his sophomore campaign and maybe the Patriots return to being the Patriots. I won't count out old Bill just yet.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens +140
The Ravens come in as the slight favorite to win the
division and I guess I agree with the sentiment. This division is tough to call
with so many uncertainties.
The uncertainties I see for the Ravens is their receiving
core. They still have one of the leagues top 3 tight ends in Mark Andrews –
which is great, but their wideouts led by Rashon Bateman and Devin Duvernay
isn’t exactly going to cause their opponents to wet their pants.
Maybe they plan to just run the ball every down? Lamar
Jackson’s legs speak for themselves. JK Dobbins is back after missing all of
2021 with injury and they added Mike Davis. So maybe they don’t need receivers…
Plus the Ravens are and always have been a win with your
defense football team. They’ll be the strong, hard-hitting D they always
are and I absolutely love the acquisition of Kyle Fuller to their secondary
even if he is on the wrong side of 30.
Cincinnati Bengals +170
The curse of Super Bowl loser. Teams typically struggle the
following year after finishing as the NFL’s runner-up. I know Joe Burrow and Ja'Maar Chase
are getting all sorts love around the league, deservedly so, but this is a
trend that teams just can’t seem to buck. It must be on your mind as a bettor going into the season
For full transparency sake. I made some tremendous preseason
takes and hit the Super Bowl winning Rams at 12-1 before last season. I made
pretty good money on these divisional plays as well, but one thing I was
100000000% wrong about was the Bengals; when I said this: “The Bengals hope to
have Joe Burrow for the entire season and start building towards a better
future. In 2021 they aren’t contenders and will most likely finish last in the
division.” Ouch! Can’t get em all right I guess...
It’s amazing how many of their free agents resigned this
offseason. Like really, really amazing. You just don’t see it in today’s
sporting world, but apparently a lot of these guys want to run it back and go
for the gold again. Will it pay off? I doubt it, but commend the loyalty and
fight.
Cleveland Browns +375
Oh, Cleveland… Well, they will get Deshaun Watson back
before the end of the year, which I guess is a positive for them, but talk
about uncertainties. How will he look after missing more than a year and a half
of NFL football? I know he’s a world class athlete, but there is no way to
simulate playing in an NFL game. I would imagine it takes a couple games to get
his jitters out and his feet under him, but by then it might be too late.
Jacoby Brissett will be tasked with holding down the fort until Watson is allowed back. That’s a task Brissett is very familiar with during his
NFL career, but having watched Brissett mostly fail at that task in Miami last
season, I wouldn’t be too optimistic if I was a Browns fan. Luckily I am not.
With the Browns it seems to come down to what it always
comes down to. Terrible culture, a bad locker room, and poor decisions by
management. This season isn’t looking any different. I think Baker Mayfield
gets some revenge Week 1. That matchup is one I’m highly anticipating and plan
to bet. (A little tease for y’all)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
The Ben Roethlisberger era has come to an end. The future
Hall of Famer probably stayed a little too long, but he earned the right to go
out on his terms. I saw a debate recently regarding his Hall of Fame chances
and it was quite laughable. I swear these talking heads just make up fake
debates to fill time. Because if Ben Roethlisberger isn’t a Hall of Fame
quarterback, then what are we even doing?
Anyways, out with old and in with the new, though that new might
be rocky in Pittsburgh. Currently, Mitch Trubisky is penciled in as the Steelers starter. It doesn't get much less exciting than Trubisky, but the
Bears have a triumphant history of destroying young QBs. They might be the ones
at fault for the horrendous play Trubisky has displayed in his NFL career. Or
maybe it’s a 50-50 blame type of situation. I tend to lean to the latter. I
don’t think Trubisky is a started in this league and I don’t think it will be
long before chants of Kenny Pickett hail down on Heinz Field. (I know the
changed the name to something stupid, so I’m just going to continue to call it Heinz Field)
The Pick: Ravens/Bengals finish 1-2 – If your book offers this
prop – take it! I can’t currently find it for this division, but see it for
others. If you are like me and can't find it - then throw a bet on each to win the division. They are both at plus money - so as long as one of them comes out on top - its profitable.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts -135
The Colts had a pretty busy offseason and improved in a lot
of areas. Their most notable acquisition was that of veteran quarterback, Matt
Ryan. They gave up a boatload to obtain
Carson Wentz just a year ago and felt forced to abort that mission shortly
after takeoff. Can’t say I blame them though. A team’s failures never fall on one
player, but when you need one win versus the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars to make
the playoffs and your offense puts up a putrid 11 points – you have to look at
the quarterback play or lack thereof. What you see is the Colts had no choice,
but to move on.
So, will Matt Ryan be the difference maker? Maybe, but it
will have to be this year. Ryan is 37 and isn't Tom Brady. He has taken 450 sacks in his career,
including 40+ each of the last 4. He’s getting too old for this shit, to
paraphrase Roger Murtaugh. Luckily for the old man, the Colts have Jonathon
Taylor, who led the league in rushing yards and touchdowns in 2021. A repeat
performance and this team should at least make the playoffs.
Their defense ranked 7th in 2021 and they
have added some nice pieces, but they will be with a new defensive coordinator,
Gus Bradley, whose style will be very different than what the Colts showed last
season. I think this will have a negative impact on the defense and not even
the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue will be able to offset this poorly executed hire. I
think this team will fall out of the top 15 of the defensive rankings in 2022, which is not ideal.
Tennessee Titans +185
The Titans were able to keep much of their core intact, with
the big exception of the trade of AJ Brown to the Eagles for the 18th
overall pick in the NFL draft – a pick they used to the take highly touted WR
Treylon Burks out of Alabama. They also used the cap-space created to sign
another stud receiver in Robert Woods. They will be a little thin at WR beyond their top 2, but maybe they look to the solid FA market led by Odell Beckam Jr, should anyone go down.
Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry makeup the backup once again. Rookie Mallick Willis will be knocking on the door should Tannehill struggle, but I'm not counting on that. I
actually like Tannehill more than most people. He has made some untimely turnovers,
especially late last season, but I have also seen him keeps drives and plays
alive with his legs and some clutch throws. I hope to see more of the latter
this season.
The defense, as always, should be tremendous and most likely
a top 10 unit. Nothing much to discus here. Rinse and repeat in Tennessee.
Jacksonville Jaguars +750
The Urban Meyer shit-show circus has left town and now we
will finally get a chance to see what Trevor Lawrence has to offer. I know he
struggled in his rookie campaign, but I can’t blame him. That locker
room was a mess and never had a chance. I’m anxious to see what he can do with
some stability. And equally as important, what he can do with his college teammate Travis Etienne in the backfield with him.
Lawrence also gets a brand new receiving core to work
with after the offseason additions of Marvin Jones Jr, Zay Jones, and Christian Kirk,
not to mention new tight end Evan Engram, who can be force when he is actually
able to get on the field. This offense definitely has
some question marks, but it could be sneaky good.
The defense can only improve after a disappointing, no good,
flat out horrible season. And while they aren’t going to propel themselves into
a top tier defense, they will be improved and should continue to grow all season
as their 2 first round defensive draft picks develop.
Houston Texans +2800
See the Jets. I’m not wasting my brain power on this team. They have no
shot at winning this division.
The pick: Tennessee Titans +185 – I think Tannehill bounces
back and the defense and Derrick Henry do what they do. It’s also a good value
play as there is no way the Colts should be costing $1.20 more. They might be
slightly better on paper, but not waaay better
Worth a gamble: Every year a team goes from worst to first. The
Jaguars +750 could be that team in 2022 – it will take a lot to go right, but
no one saw Cincinnati coming a year ago either.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs +175
The Chiefs at plus money probably looks ultra-enticing, but
this division is absolutely stacked and every team improved this offseason,
with the exception of the Chiefs, in my opinion. The lost one of the NFLs most
unique and deadly weapons in Tyreek Hill. Sorry, but JuJu Smith-Shuster and
Marquez Valdes-Scantling aren’t enough to replace Hill, I don’t care how may
extra last names the have – its not enough.
The Chiefs completely overhauled their defense with only 9
players that saw significant field action last season back on the roster. There
was room and need for an improved defense if the Chiefs plan to get back to the
big game, but I’m not convinced they improved enough - if at all.
The brought in Carlos Dunlap from Seattle in a move the will
help their defensive line, at least on the edge. Loved the signing. However, they
also let Tyrann Mathieu walk, a move I do not like. He’s had some injury
concerns over his career, but the guy is a leader on the field and just
straight up a OG football player. The league needs more guys like the Honeybadger and I’m a bit surprised to see him moving on to his 4th team
in what will be his 10 NFL season. (Hard to believe he’s in the league 10
years. Damnit I‘m old)
San Di… Los Angeles Chargers +220
They will always be the San Diego Chargers to me, but they
do make their home in LA these days. Oh well.
The Bolts should have made the playoffs last season. Some
very questionable boneheaded calls by head coach Brandon Staley probably
cost the Chargers a game or two in 2021. I’ve never seen a team turn it over on
downs as much as the Chargers did a year ago. You know I love to gamble, but always
gamble with logic and purpose. I know Staley is a huge advanced stats type a guy,
but a lot of his calls were beyond advanced and just stupid. It truly cost his team in a huge way. I do
expect him to calm down a little this season, but if he doesn’t and the
Chargers fail to reach the playoffs again, he’ll be looking for a new job.
The playoffs should be the easy part for this team though.
They have the potential to be a top 5 defense and a top 5 offence. That is one of
the key ingredients I look for when I make my Super Bowl picks. (Yep, another
tease) Not much has changed on offense – and well like the old saying goes: if
it ain’t broke…
The defense wasn’t exactly broke either, but that didn’t
stop the Chargers from bringing in linebackers Khalil Mack and JC Jackson. A
linebacking unit that already possess Joey Bosa. This team is going to feast on
offenses and have quarterbacks hurting on Mondays. Good luck to Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson will get to play them twice…
Denver Broncos +260
Russell Wilson finally got out of Seattle and away from an offense line that allowed him to be sacked at least 33 times in each of his 10 season and 40+ in 8 of those 10 seasons. So that’s good news, but this offensive line is average at best. Wilson shouldn’t reduce his monthly Tide budget just yet.
The Broncos will once again have an elite defense and have a
little extra home field advantage playing at Mile High. However, they have a really daunting schedule even outside what might be the best division in football. They will
play the 49ers, Colts, Ravens, Titans, Rams, and Cardinals – on top of 2
meetings each against the Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs. I saw some talking head on
Fox say he was taking Broncos Over 10 wins, I immediately faded. I think 10 is a best case scenario for this team. I’m predicting an 8-9
Bet: Broncos under 10 wins
Las Vegas Raiders +650
Davante Adams! He willingly left the league MVP, Aaron
Rodgers, to go play with his college teammate Derek Carr, who I have been extremely hard on over the years, but he won me over a bit… well actually a lot in 2021 - and he might be ready to finally get a playoff win and much more this year.
Carr and the Raiders had every excuse to lay down last season (Gruden, Ruggs, etc) but they didn’t. They fought through every distraction and meme and went to the playoffs. They lost a controversial game to the eventual AFC champs in the first round, but they showed heart all year.
If there is
one thing Derek Carr has – its heart. But he now also has some extra weapons at his disposal. Everyone knows Adams is a superstar, but do they know Hunter Renfrow? Renfrow might be the most underrated, underappreciated
player in the league – maybe ever. He’s one of three Raiders players to ever
have over 100 catches in a season. Hall of Famer Tim Brown and current tight
end Darren Waller each did it one time as well. Recently, Derwin James of the Chargers gave
huge praise to Renfrow when talking about playing defense on the top receivers
in league. He mentioned Tyreek Hill and Hunter Renfrow and that was it... The players know even
if casual fans and the sports media does not. Renfrow is the real deal.
The addition of Adams should only help free up Renfrow as teams
will need to double Adams. Throw Waller in the mix – and defenses are going to
have their hands full trying to keep track of these guys.
The defense had a league worst 6 INTs – yes 6 all season in
2021. They will need to improve in that department, and I think they will, but unfortunately,
this is still a bottom half defense. Luckily they have the offensive fire power
to put up big scores and stay competitive in what I think will be the most excited division in the NFL.
The Pick: Chargers +220 – I’m expecting big things from this
team on both sides of the ball. I think it’s their year.
Worth a gamble: Raiders +650 – in such a close division why
not take the best odds? I’m staying away as I don’t trust the D, but I won’t be
surprised if the Raiders take 2nd in the division and earn a wild
card berth.
No comments:
Post a Comment