NFC Divisional Picks

 

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys +150

The Cowboys come in as the co-favorite to win the division, which means they will once again have the opportunity to disappoint their rambunctious fans. The annual high expectations in Dallas haven’t been realized in quite some time. Their last Super Bowl appearance and win was 27 years ago…

Speaking of disappointing – its time Dak Prescott proves he’s elite on the field. Every year it seems to be the same talk: “I’m confident in myself” “I know I’m an elite player” blah blah – talk is cheap and he’s starting to lose the benefit of the doubt. He ranked 9^th in 2021 – which doesn’t sound all that bad, but he had some real stinkers that he was able to hide with some massive stat padding games. Given the offensive talent around him, I think we should expect more out of Dak. And unfortunately for Dak, his pass catchers aren’t as deep as 2021 with Amari Cooper leaving for Cleveland. So, Dak will need to play better and limit the fumbling – he coughed it up 15 times last season.

The defensive side of the ball also has huge potential for disappointment. While, I love watching Micah Parsons there isn’t much more on the defense that moves the needle. Trevon Diggs can make some spectacular plays. He is also known to inexplicably blow his coverage and give up big gains. The good with the bad and you’re right back where you started.

As always – the Cowboys are overhyped and I do not trust this team one bit.

Philadelphia Eagles +150

The other co-favorite is not without concerns, but they were the opposite of disappointing in 2021 when they surprisingly made the postseason. After a slow and shaky start the Eagles found their groove mid-way through the year. This was in large part to adjusting their offense to match Jalen Hurts skill set by allowing him to use his legs. Why you would want to try and force such a talent to sit in the pocket is beyond me, but at least Philly eventually figured it out. Imagine what a whole season of playing to the strengths of your team might do?

I could see this team winning the Super Bowl as a best case scenario. Or falling flat on their faces and not even sniffing the playoffs. A lot will depend on the play of the aforementioned Jalen Hurts. The trade for AJ Brown should help. Devonta Smith improving in his 2^nd year will also be welcomed, as will Dallas Goedert hopefully playing the full season as the undisputed lead TE on the roster.

The defense will be a top 10 unit, maybe even top 5 depending on how the new guys gel. They’ll have one of the best d-lines in all of football led by Fletcher Cox. Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson come over to boost their secondary and Kyzir White and James Bradberry fill in the middle of this scary, scary defense.

Washington Football Team +500

The Commanders is a stupid name and they really should have kept Football Team, but of course the front office in Washington would make the wrong decision – its what they do best.

Washington’s D was supposed to be a force and this team’s strength in 2021, but it was far from it, as they finished among the league’s worst. They hoped the return of the previous number 1 overall draft pick – Chase Young would help, but he has been placed on IR and will miss at least a little bit of time.  

They brought in Carson Wentz to lead the offense and as we discussed in the AFC preview, that plan failed miserably for the Colts a season ago. I don’t see it going much better for Wentz after the laundry swap.

It should also be mentioned that Washington was real excited about rookie running Brian Robinson and there were rumors he was going to be named the starter. Fast forward a day after said rumors and he’s going to miss significant time after being shot in a robbery gone. He was being robbed in case that wasn’t clear.

Ney York Giants +800

Is this the year Daniel Jones takes a leap forward? Is this the year Saquon Barkley stays healthy and sets the field on fire? Is this the year the Giants get back to winning football? Ehh probably not.

They do have a pretty deep receiving core and some young pieces of D, but this team probably isn’t a threat to make real noise.

Fun fact: Last year I bet the Giants more than any other team going 5-1 in games I bet them to cover the spread. As they say: Good teams win games, great teams cover the spread.

The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +150 – I don’t trust the Boys and my gut is telling Jalen Hurts has a break out year.

Worth a gamble: Save your money here – I don’t give Washington or NY much of a shot.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers -190

The Pack once again find themselves as the cream of the crop in the North and the 3^rd highest odds to win the Super Bowl. They have reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, but lost his number 1 receiver, Davante Adams, and his 3^rd favorite option, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They brought in Sammy Watkins to try to fill some of that void, but there is no replacing Adams and I feel strongly that this receiving core is inferior to most.

Look for running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to be an even bigger part of the pass game, two guys I’d look to target for those that play fantasy football.

As for the number of questions I have on offense, I do not have the same reservations on the other side of the ball. This defense is top 3 on paper with a killer secondary. If they overachieve at stopping the run, this might be the very best the NFL has to offer.

Minnesota Vikings +260

I’m not going to look, but I assume I could write the exact same thing I wrote about this team a year ago; disappointing defense, is Kirk Cousins a QB that can take a team to the next level? Tons of talent on offence with Delvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen, but it won’t be enough because its never enough for Cousins and Vikings.

I probably also had a comment about Mike Zimmer being on thin ice. Well, that ice cracked. Zimmer is out and the new and 1^st time head coach is Kevin O’Connell. He spent the last 2 seasons as the Rams OC. So, the Vikings switch to an offensive minded head coach to go along with their excessive artillery. The Vikings are definitely headed in the right direction, but need to climb a bit higher before they can hang with the elite teams in NFC.

Detroit Lions +1000

If watching a week of Lions practice condensed down to 55 minutes for an episode has taught me anything its that the NFL takes GRIT! It’s been fun seeing the Lions on Hard Knocks. They have sure edited the film to make you think this is going to be Jerrod Goff’s resurrection year, and maybe there is something to that.

It wasn’t that long ago that Jerrod Goff was the number 1 draft pick. Even shorter ago he was playing in the Super Bowl. Its not like Goff is Sam Darnold. He has had success in this league. I think he has a lot to prove and has matured since leaving LA. The Lions should have at least an adequate offense. D’Andre Swift has the potential to be a top running back in this league. Amon St. Brown was an absolute steal when he was drafted as the 112^th pick in the 2021 draft and he is making it a point to show the whole world why.

However, the defense is going to struggle. The number 2 pick in this year’s draft, Aiden Hutchinson, is a nice building block, but it takes 11 on defense. The Lions just don’t have the talent on the line, or in the middle, and especially not in the secondary. This team is going to give up some really high totals. Which is good news for over bettors.

Chicago Bears +1500

Da Bears. The fact they have worse odds than the Lions to win the division should tell you all you need to know. This team is going to be awful. And that’s about all there is to say about that.

The Pick: There is too much juice on the Packers for me, but I do think they take the division.

Worth a gamble: Vikings +260 This offense should roll. If the D can step it up maybe its enough to overthrow The Pack as the Kings of the North. Rodgers isn’t getting any younger and has less support than he has had in a long time.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -250

Heavy favorites to win the division, but I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as everything is assuming. Tom Brady retired and unretired in a matter of 30 days or something like that. He missed 2 weeks of training camp in what was described as “approved time off”. And well no shit – if the GOAT says he has to miss a couple weeks, you approve it, but how much will this cost the team?

Tampa is already looking to have a questionable O-line. Not the greatest news for a 45 year old QB. Brady will also have a few new targets to throw to and the time his missed can’t be overlooked. Training camp is the time players get a feel for one another. Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Kyle Rudolph could have used that time to get on track with Brady. Now he is the ultimate professional and I have no doubt he can get his teammates up to speed quickly, but I could see a slow start from the offense.

What exactly is going on in Brady’s personal and will it be a distraction? If the tabloids are true and Giselle has moved out, then yea I expect that to be a huge distraction for Brady. Something to keep an eye on early.

New Orleans Saints +300

The Saints will be happy to have Jameis Winston back from injury. The Taysom Hill experiment ended in the laboratory catching on fire and almost burned the whole building to the ground. Well, at least now the Saints know Hill can have a package or 2, or be thrown out there for trick plays, but he is NOT a full time quarterback. This is something I’ve known for years, but for whatever reason Sean Payton thought he might be the successor to Drew Bress. Sometimes smart NFL guys are really dumb.

The Saints also get Michael Thomas back from injury, but its uncertain if he’ll be able to get back to his old form. They also signed Jarvis Landry and drafted WR, Chris Olave out of the Ohio State University. And I can’t forget their do everything running back Alvin Kamara. If Jameis has finally matured at least a little, and it was looking to be going in that direction before he went down early last season, then this offense could surprise a lot of people.

What won’t be surprising is when their defense leaves offenses shaking their heads and their playmakers running for the ice bath. The Saints are poised to be one of the NFL’s best defenses. Arguably a top 3 d-line. A very strong secondary and one of the games premier linebackers in Damario Davis. Do not sleep on the Saints.

Carolina Panthers +900

Well, it didn’t take long for Matt Rhule and the Carolina Panthers to learn Sam Darnold ain’t going to cut it. So, they brought in Baker Mayfield and started a quarterback competition in training camp that really wasn’t one. There was never a doubt in my mind Baker would win the starting job.  

Baker is another guy I’m higher on than most. He played with multiple injuries in 2021 and he probably shouldn’t have, but say what you want about him, he’s a gamer and a tough SOB. He also had to start his career in Cleveland and they have a knack for not doing their QBs any favors. I look for us to finally see Baker’s true colors and I expect them to be much brighter than we have previously seen.

Typically, when I think of Carolina teams I think of strong defensive football – unfortunately that’s not what anyone will be thinking when they watch these guys in 2022. Projected to be a bottom 3^rd defense this team has a ways to go. If Rhule is on the hot seat like many suggest, then he might be the perfect choice for a “first coach to be fired” bet. I don’t take such props, but if I did, I’d look Rhule.

Atlanta Falcons +3500

They have the lowest odds of any team to win their division and the 2^nd lowest to win the Super Bowl at 200/1. In other words, they have no shot.

The Pick: New Orleans Saints +300 Beyond not betting such a big division favorite, I actually like Saints. Their defense will be one of the NFL’s best and their offense could be really good too. I just have a bad feeling about Tampa.

 

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams +130

The defending Super Bowl champions come in as the slight favorite to win the division. Not much of a surprise there, though the 49ers aren’t far behind. You always need to be aware of the Super Bowl let down and the new target that gets stitched on the backs of their jerseys.

Matthew Stafford says his elbow is fine after being on a pitch count all training camp. Do I believe him? No. But I’ve followed Stafford’s entire career pretty closely. I’ve seen he play through an incalculable number of injuries and always he was one of the league’s best. No one believed me because he played in Detroit and well the Lions are the Lions. But look what happened in his first year out of Detroit? Checkmate doubters.

The offense and defense see some faces come and some faces go, but they’ll still be absolute juggernauts on both sides of the ball. I’d imagine they get off to a slow start, but find their groove come mid-October or so.

San Francisco 49ers +150

The 49ers ended up restructuring Jimmy G’s contract and brought him back for one more year. This tells me the 49er coaching staff isn’t 100% sold or even 80% sold on Trey Lance being ready. You it use to be a QB was drafted and he sat on the bench for 3 or so years before being thrown to the wolves that makes up NFL defenses. Nowadays you’re expected to come in and lead a team as soon as your name is called on draft night. Its no wonder we see more busts with top picks these days – that’s a shit ton of pressure on a 22 year old kid.

Having Debo Samuel back should help Trey navigate his first season as the teams starter (written in pencil). After trade demands and social media posts that he’d never play in San Francisco again, money won and Debo stays put. There was never really a doubt. You don’t let a force like Debo just leave and the 49ers made sure he didn’t. Beyond Debo and Brandon Aiyuk the receiving core gets pretty weak. Tight End George Kittle obviously helps, but when he inevitably gets hurt in 6 or 7 weeks then what?

Win with defense! The 49ers have a solid one, but will need to improve. They had 20 takeaways last season – which was good enough for 20^th in the league – or not great. They also turned the ball over 24 times – again not great. With Trey Lance getting his shot – I don’t see that number shrinking any, so this defense will have to do more.

Arizona Cardinals +400

I was really high on the Cardinals a season ago, and I was in the minority there. They started off on fire, but eventually ran into some injury issues and cooled down, but were still able to make a playoff run. It was an incredibly productive season and one a young team should grow from.

This is another team that might be a bit thin at WR, at least until Deandre Hopkins returns from his suspension. Christian Kirk has moved on to Jacksonville and has been replaced by “Hollywood” Brown”. Larry Fitzgerald retired after his 43^rd season. I always like seeing a guy stay with one team his whole career, especially one as celebrated as Fitzgerald’s. He was/is a great on and off the field and has done so much for the community and the development of the game. Guys like Fitzgerald are never replaced.

The Cardinals had and have an underrated defense. Budda Baker might be my favorite player to watch in all of football. The Cards were a top 7 team in turnover forced in 2021 and I expect the same. Teams that win get it done on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals fit that description.

Seattle Seahawks +2000

The Russell Wilson era is over and the Geno Smith era begins. Not really. I assume Geno is just a place holder while the Seahawks regroup. They will not be contenders this year and project to be one of the league’s worst. No idea how they are as high as +2000 to take the division. Not going to happen.

The Pick/worth a gamble: Cardinals +400 – I don’t trust the 49ers yet and I think the Rams have a bit of a letdown. So, I’ll take a shot on the Cardinals at very favorable odds.

AFC Divisional Picks

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills -230

The overwhelming favorite to win the division; the favorite to win the Conference and the Super Bowl, the Bills have high expectations and anything less than a deep playoff run will be a disappointment. Their leader, Josh Allen, just keeps getting better and better. Though, his passing yards were down a tad and he did throw 15 INTs (most in his career), he also added 763 yards rushing – his highest total of his first 4 years. If Allen continues to improve, the Bills might finally get that monkey off their back and be crowned Super Bowl Champions. But these are the Bills and history is not on their side.

Their offence should operate mostly the same. They replaced Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley (both of whom still don’t have jobs) with Jamison Crowder, who if can stay healthy, and that’s a BIG IF, will be an upgrade as a 3rd option for Allen behind Stephon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. The Bills also signed a couple experienced guards for added protection for Allen and to open those running lanes – defenses watch out!

While they have loss some depth on the d-line , they added a 2x Super Bowl winner, 1-time Super Bowl MVP, and straight up superstar in Von Miller. His leadership and experience may be what this Bill’s team has been looking for.

Miami Dolphins +450

Man, how times have changed… The Patriots aren’t even the 2^nd favorite to win the division after being the favorite for the better part of 20 years...

In 2022 the Miami Dolphins are looking to claim their stake as a true contender. Don't get too excited Miami - a lot of things will need to go right - starting with the quarterback play by Tua Tagovailoa. Sure he now has one of the most unique weapons in the NFL to throw to in Tyreek Hill, but I’m far from buying the Miami hype. Praise of Tua’s accuracy is great and all, but getting it done in practice while wearing a red shirt is very different than getting it done on Sundays when defenses are allowed to hit you.

Besides Hill, Miami improved their offence with the additions of running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds. Throw them along Miles Gaskin and they have 3 backs they can catch, run, dodge, dip, dive, and dodge... they should be able to run fresh legs out there more often than not - which is a huge bonus in today's league.

The already formidable defense should see some improvements too. I think this will be a tough - tough football team, but I think they are a quarterback away from being a real contender. This very well may be Tua’s lost chance in Miami and if that’s the case, I think the Dolphins will be a team to keep an eye on in 2023 and beyond.

New England Patriots +500

I’ve been watching Man in the Arena and while the focus of the doc is on Brady, you really get a sense that a large portion of the mentality the Patriots played with, especially in Brady’s early years, csme from Belichick. Seems like his style of motivation really inspired the players and got them to play at the elite level they did. When their dynasty started though, it was a completely different world that we lived in. I’m not so sure Belichick’s style of coaching/motivating can still reach these young kids coming into the league. Not to say they are soft, because any man that plays in the NFL is far from soft, at least physically, but they might be too emotionally fragile to buy in to Belichick’s ways. No participation ribbons in New England. 

Or it could simply be the Patriots no longer have the greatest QB to ever play. It could be the weapons around Mac Jones, or even Mac Jones himself, just aren’t good enough. They tried to improve a little bit on offense. Devante Parker coming over should be a significant upgrade over N’keal Harry, who never even got close to living up to his draft position. Still, I think they could have made a bigger splash in the WR pool. We'll see if the dip they did make was enough. 

New York Jets +2800

SMH. I’m not wasting my time or efforts on the Jets. Another season over before it even begins.

The pick: Bills -230 I’m not betting this one, but I truly believe the Bills win the division easily, unless Allen goes down that is. No jinx! I just have a rule about betting such a heavy favorite on a season price.

Worth a gamble: Patriots +500 Maybe Allen does go down. Maybe Mac improves in his sophomore campaign and maybe the Patriots return to being the Patriots. I won't count out old Bill just yet. 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens +140

The Ravens come in as the slight favorite to win the division and I guess I agree with the sentiment. This division is tough to call with so many uncertainties.

The uncertainties I see for the Ravens is their receiving core. They still have one of the leagues top 3 tight ends in Mark Andrews – which is great, but their wideouts led by Rashon Bateman and Devin Duvernay isn’t exactly going to cause their opponents to wet their pants.

Maybe they plan to just run the ball every down? Lamar Jackson’s legs speak for themselves. JK Dobbins is back after missing all of 2021 with injury and they added Mike Davis. So maybe they don’t need receivers…

Plus the Ravens are and always have been a win with your defense football team. They’ll be the strong, hard-hitting D they always are and I absolutely love the acquisition of Kyle Fuller to their secondary even if he is on the wrong side of 30.

Cincinnati Bengals +170

The curse of Super Bowl loser. Teams typically struggle the following year after finishing as the NFL’s runner-up. I know Joe Burrow and Ja'Maar Chase are getting all sorts love around the league, deservedly so, but this is a trend that teams just can’t seem to buck. It must be on your mind as a bettor going into the season

For full transparency sake. I made some tremendous preseason takes and hit the Super Bowl winning Rams at 12-1 before last season. I made pretty good money on these divisional plays as well, but one thing I was 100000000% wrong about was the Bengals; when I said this: “The Bengals hope to have Joe Burrow for the entire season and start building towards a better future. In 2021 they aren’t contenders and will most likely finish last in the division.” Ouch! Can’t get em all right I guess...

It’s amazing how many of their free agents resigned this offseason. Like really, really amazing. You just don’t see it in today’s sporting world, but apparently a lot of these guys want to run it back and go for the gold again. Will it pay off? I doubt it, but commend the loyalty and fight.

 

Cleveland Browns +375

Oh, Cleveland… Well, they will get Deshaun Watson back before the end of the year, which I guess is a positive for them, but talk about uncertainties. How will he look after missing more than a year and a half of NFL football? I know he’s a world class athlete, but there is no way to simulate playing in an NFL game. I would imagine it takes a couple games to get his jitters out and his feet under him, but by then it might be too late.

Jacoby Brissett will be tasked with holding down the fort until Watson is allowed back. That’s a task Brissett is very familiar with during his NFL career, but having watched Brissett mostly fail at that task in Miami last season, I wouldn’t be too optimistic if I was a Browns fan. Luckily I am not. 

With the Browns it seems to come down to what it always comes down to. Terrible culture, a bad locker room, and poor decisions by management. This season isn’t looking any different. I think Baker Mayfield gets some revenge Week 1. That matchup is one I’m highly anticipating and plan to bet. (A little tease for y’all)

Pittsburgh Steelers +1000

The Ben Roethlisberger era has come to an end. The future Hall of Famer probably stayed a little too long, but he earned the right to go out on his terms. I saw a debate recently regarding his Hall of Fame chances and it was quite laughable. I swear these talking heads just make up fake debates to fill time. Because if Ben Roethlisberger isn’t a Hall of Fame quarterback, then what are we even doing?

Anyways, out with old and  in with the new, though that new might be rocky in Pittsburgh. Currently, Mitch Trubisky is penciled in as the Steelers starter. It doesn't get much less exciting than Trubisky, but the Bears have a triumphant history of destroying young QBs. They might be the ones at fault for the horrendous play Trubisky has displayed in his NFL career. Or maybe it’s a 50-50 blame type of situation. I tend to lean to the latter. I don’t think Trubisky is a started in this league and I don’t think it will be long before chants of Kenny Pickett hail down on Heinz Field. (I know the changed the name to something stupid, so I’m just going to continue to call it Heinz Field)

The Pick: Ravens/Bengals finish 1-2 – If your book offers this prop – take it! I can’t currently find it for this division, but see it for others. If you are like me and can't find it - then throw a bet on each to win the division. They are both at plus money - so as long as one of them comes out on top - its profitable. 

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts -135

The Colts had a pretty busy offseason and improved in a lot of areas. Their most notable acquisition was that of veteran quarterback, Matt Ryan.  They gave up a boatload to obtain Carson Wentz just a year ago and felt forced to abort that mission shortly after takeoff. Can’t say I blame them though. A team’s failures never fall on one player, but when you need one win versus the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs and your offense puts up a putrid 11 points – you have to look at the quarterback play or lack thereof. What you see is the Colts had no choice, but to move on.

So, will Matt Ryan be the difference maker? Maybe, but it will have to be this year. Ryan is 37 and isn't Tom Brady. He has taken 450 sacks in his career, including 40+ each of the last 4. He’s getting too old for this shit, to paraphrase Roger Murtaugh. Luckily for the old man, the Colts have Jonathon Taylor, who led the league in rushing yards and touchdowns in 2021.  A repeat performance and this team should at least make the playoffs.

Their defense ranked 7^th in 2021 and they have added some nice pieces, but they will be with a new defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, whose style will be very different than what the Colts showed last season. I think this will have a negative impact on the defense and not even the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue will be able to offset this poorly executed hire. I think this team will fall out of the top 15 of the defensive rankings in 2022, which is not ideal. 

Tennessee Titans +185

The Titans were able to keep much of their core intact, with the big exception of the trade of AJ Brown to the Eagles for the 18^th overall pick in the NFL draft – a pick they used to the take highly touted WR Treylon Burks out of Alabama. They also used the cap-space created to sign another stud receiver in Robert Woods. They will be a little thin at WR beyond their top 2, but maybe they look to the solid FA market led by Odell Beckam Jr, should anyone go down.

Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry makeup the backup once again. Rookie Mallick Willis will be knocking on the door should Tannehill struggle, but I'm not counting on that. I actually like Tannehill more than most people. He has made some untimely turnovers, especially late last season, but I have also seen him keeps drives and plays alive with his legs and some clutch throws. I hope to see more of the latter this season.

The defense, as always, should be tremendous and most likely a top 10 unit. Nothing much to discus here. Rinse and repeat in Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars +750

The Urban Meyer shit-show circus has left town and now we will finally get a chance to see what Trevor Lawrence has to offer. I know he struggled in his rookie campaign, but I can’t blame him. That locker room was a mess and never had a chance. I’m anxious to see what he can do with some stability. And equally as important, what he can do with his college teammate Travis Etienne in the backfield with him.

Lawrence also gets a brand new receiving core to work with after the offseason additions of Marvin Jones Jr, Zay Jones, and Christian Kirk, not to mention new tight end Evan Engram, who can be force when he is actually able to get on the field. This offense definitely has some question marks, but it could be sneaky good.

The defense can only improve after a disappointing, no good, flat out horrible season. And while they aren’t going to propel themselves into a top tier defense, they will be improved and should continue to grow all season as their 2 first round defensive draft picks develop.

Houston Texans +2800

See the Jets. I’m not wasting my brain power on this team. They have no shot at winning this division.

The pick: Tennessee Titans +185 – I think Tannehill bounces back and the defense and Derrick Henry do what they do. It’s also a good value play as there is no way the Colts should be costing $1.20 more. They might be slightly better on paper, but not waaay better

Worth a gamble: Every year a team goes from worst to first. The Jaguars +750 could be that team in 2022 – it will take a lot to go right, but no one saw Cincinnati coming a year ago either.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs +175

The Chiefs at plus money probably looks ultra-enticing, but this division is absolutely stacked and every team improved this offseason, with the exception of the Chiefs, in my opinion. The lost one of the NFLs most unique and deadly weapons in Tyreek Hill. Sorry, but JuJu Smith-Shuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling aren’t enough to replace Hill, I don’t care how may extra last names the have – its not enough.

The Chiefs completely overhauled their defense with only 9 players that saw significant field action last season back on the roster. There was room and need for an improved defense if the Chiefs plan to get back to the big game, but I’m not convinced they improved enough - if at all. 

The brought in Carlos Dunlap from Seattle in a move the will help their defensive line, at least on the edge. Loved the signing. However, they also let Tyrann Mathieu walk, a move I do not like. He’s had some injury concerns over his career, but the guy is a leader on the field and just straight up a OG football player. The league needs more guys like the Honeybadger and I’m a bit surprised to see him moving on to his 4^th team in what will be his 10 NFL season. (Hard to believe he’s in the league 10 years. Damnit I‘m old)

San Di… Los Angeles Chargers +220

They will always be the San Diego Chargers to me, but they do make their home in LA these days. Oh well.

The Bolts should have made the playoffs last season. Some very questionable boneheaded calls by head coach Brandon Staley probably cost the Chargers a game or two in 2021. I’ve never seen a team turn it over on downs as much as the Chargers did a year ago. You know I love to gamble, but always gamble with logic and purpose. I know Staley is a huge advanced stats type a guy, but a lot of his calls were beyond advanced and just stupid. It truly cost his team in a huge way. I do expect him to calm down a little this season, but if he doesn’t and the Chargers fail to reach the playoffs again, he’ll be looking for a new job.

The playoffs should be the easy part for this team though. They have the potential to be a top 5 defense and a top 5 offence. That is one of the key ingredients I look for when I make my Super Bowl picks. (Yep, another tease) Not much has changed on offense – and well like the old saying goes: if it ain’t broke…

The defense wasn’t exactly broke either, but that didn’t stop the Chargers from bringing in linebackers Khalil Mack and JC Jackson. A linebacking unit that already possess Joey Bosa. This team is going to feast on offenses and have quarterbacks hurting on Mondays. Good luck to Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson will get to play them twice…

Denver Broncos +260

Russell Wilson finally got out of Seattle and away from an offense line that allowed him to be sacked at least 33 times in each of his 10 season and 40+ in 8 of those 10 seasons. So that’s good news, but this offensive line is average at best.  Wilson shouldn’t reduce his monthly Tide budget just yet.

The Broncos will once again have an elite defense and have a little extra home field advantage playing at Mile High. However, they have a really daunting schedule even outside what might be the best division in football. They will play the 49ers, Colts, Ravens, Titans, Rams, and Cardinals – on top of 2 meetings each against the Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs. I saw some talking head on Fox say he was taking Broncos Over 10 wins, I immediately faded. I think 10 is a best case scenario for this team. I’m predicting an 8-9

Bet: Broncos under 10 wins

Las Vegas Raiders +650

Davante Adams! He willingly left the league MVP, Aaron Rodgers, to go play with his college teammate Derek Carr, who I have been extremely hard on over the years, but he won me over a bit… well actually a lot in 2021 - and he might be ready to finally get a playoff win and much more this year.

Carr and the Raiders had every excuse to lay down last season (Gruden, Ruggs, etc) but they didn’t. They fought through every distraction and meme and went to the playoffs. They lost a controversial game to the eventual AFC champs in the first round, but they showed heart all year. 

If there is one thing Derek Carr has – its heart. But he now also has some extra weapons at his disposal. Everyone knows Adams is a superstar, but do they know Hunter Renfrow?  Renfrow might be the most underrated, underappreciated player in the league – maybe ever. He’s one of three Raiders players to ever have over 100 catches in a season. Hall of Famer Tim Brown and current tight end Darren Waller each did it one time as well. Recently, Derwin James of the Chargers gave huge praise to Renfrow when talking about playing defense on the top receivers in league. He mentioned Tyreek Hill and Hunter Renfrow and that was it... The players know even if casual fans and the sports media does not. Renfrow is the real deal. 

The addition of Adams should only help free up Renfrow as teams will need to double Adams. Throw Waller in the mix – and defenses are going to have their hands full trying to keep track of these guys. 

The defense had a league worst 6 INTs – yes 6 all season in 2021. They will need to improve in that department, and I think they will, but unfortunately, this is still a bottom half defense. Luckily they have the offensive fire power to put up big scores and stay competitive in what I think will be the most excited division in the NFL.

The Pick: Chargers +220 – I’m expecting big things from this team on both sides of the ball. I think it’s their year.

Worth a gamble: Raiders +650 – in such a close division why not take the best odds? I’m staying away as I don’t trust the D, but I won’t be surprised if the Raiders take 2^nd in the division and earn a wild card berth.