MLB 2011 Season Predictions

Playoffs

American League                                                           National League

   East - Boston Red Sox                                                   East - Philadelphia Phillies

       Central - Detroit Tigers                                                  Central - Milwaukee Brewers

 West - Oakland Athletics                                               West - Colorado Rockies

Wild Card - Chicago White Sox                                    Wild Card - San Fracisco Giants

ALDS                                                                            NLDS

Red Sox over White Sox                                                Giants over Phillies

       Tigers over Athletics                                                      Rockies over Brewers

AL Championship                                                          NL Championship

Red Sox over Tigers                                                      Giants over Rockies

World Series

Red Sox over Giants

Season Awards

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez                   NL MVP - Troy Tulowitzki

AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander             NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay

Manager of the Year - Bob Green           Manager of the Year - Ron Roenicke

~Below you can find analysis on all 30 MLB teams. 

National League West Preview

In 2010,  the NL West was suppose to be one of the weaker divisions in baseball.  By season's end, it may have turned out to be the strongest.  The surprise San Diego Padres were the feel good story of the year.  They lead the division for most of the year, until they ran out of steam in the final week of the regular season, when they were dethroned by the eventual World Series Champions, the San Francisco Giants.  What's in store out west in 2011?  Let's see...
*Teams listed in predicted order of finish.

The Colorado Rockies
In the off season, the Rockies wasted little time in signing their best player, Troy Tulowitzki, to a contract extension that will keep the 25 year-old shortstop in purple pinstripes until 2020.  Despite missing 40 games last year to wrist injury, Tulo still had 27 home runs and 148 hits.  Coming off career highs in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, Tulo hasn't even reached his prime yet.  Assuming he plays a full season in 2011, there are no limits to how high his numbers will soar.  Rockies fans should feel blessed knowing that they will be able to go to the ballpark and watch this guy play for at least the next 10 years.

I cannot stress enough how important it is for a team to have a closer it can rely on in the 9th inning to finish teams off.  In 2010, the Rockies played most of their season without the services of their closer, 2005 Rookie of the Year, Huston Street.  At 27 years of age, Street should be able to bounce back from shoulder and groin injuries that kept him sidelined for more than 60 games a year ago.  In case Street goes down again, the Rockies signed an insurance policy in the form of Matt Lindstrom, who was a closer with the Houston Astros in 2010. 

The Rockies are young and talented at almost every position.  It's no secret that the Mile High City is conducive to a team that can hit the ball.  With Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez leading the way, the Rockies will hit plenty.

The San Francisco Giants
Unlike the Rockies, the Giants are mediocre at best with the bat.  Struggles on offense don't seem to matter that much when your pitching staff is lights out.  That's exactly what the Giants staff is, and that is what won them the World Series crown in 2010.  The Giants pitchers gave up the least amount of runs in the Major Leagues and were best in batting average against (opposing teams batting average when facing Giant's pitching).

Unquestionably, the leader of that staff is Tim Lincecum, although you may know him as Mitch Kramer from "Dazed and Confused".  At just 26 years-old, he has already won two Cy Young awards and has at least 15 wins and 200 strikeouts in each of his first 3 full seasons as a starter.  Appropriately nick-named, the Freak, Lincecum says he has worked harder this off season than in any other before.  Coming from a guy that was already nearly un-hittable, that's a scary thought for National League hitters.

The San Diego Padres
Even though the Padres were forced to trade away their best player, all-star Adrian Gonzalez, they can still compete in the west, thanks to their young and efficient pitching staff.  The ace of the staff is 23 year-old Mat Latos, who should have an excellent career.  Their closer, Heath Bell is one of the premiere relievers in the game.  If the Friars can get the game to the 9th inning with the lead, then you can confidently put a W in the win column, because Bell will rarely let a game get a away.

The Padres, who began 2010 with the second lowest payroll in baseball are never big spenders in the off season.  Working with a budget, I think the Padres spent their modest allowance well.  They picked up an array of veteran infielders (Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, and Brad Hawpe) who are capable on both sides of the ball.  They also picked up pitcher Aaron Harang, who struggled in 2010 for the Cincinnati Reds.  Moving to the spacious confines of Petco Park would be helpful for any pitcher.  Petco Park may be just what Harang needs to revitalize his career and winning ways. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers
What has become of this historic franchise?  Divorces used to just ruin lives and bank accounts.  Now they are ruining Major League Baseball teams.  The Dodgers will begin their second season in which they are the child stuck in the middle of the high profile custody battle between Frank and Jamie McCourt.  With the ownership uncertain, it makes it very difficult for the front office to spend money in free agency.  Not to mention the distraction it will cause the entire organization, from the guys in suits, to the men in uniforms.  Hopefully, this mess gets settled sooner rather than later and the Dodgers get back to their championship pedigree.

Another story to watch in Dodger-land this season will be how first time manager Don Mattingly fares.  "Donnie baseball" had been a coach on the legendary Joe Torre squads starting in 2004 while the pair were with the Yankess.  After Torre was fired in New York, Mattingly joined Torre in Los Angeles and will take over the managerial role now that Torre has retired.  As if being a manager for the first time doesn't cause enough anxiety as is, Mattingly will have to lead a team that is surrounded by turmoil.  Good luck to the Dodgers and their new manager, they'll need it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks
Coming off a year in which they lost 97 games, second worst in the National League, the Diamondbacks can't get much worse.  Unfortunately, they didn't get any better either.  They traded away their teams best home run hitter, Mark Reynolds, only months after they signed him to a three year contract extension.  You would figure, upon making a trade involving a power hitter like Reynolds, that the D-Backs would acquire personnel that will have tremendous impact.  Ummm, maybe.  The D-Backs received two young relievers who throw, but are by no means proven assets to a big league ball club.

It's obvious the Diamondbacks are rebuilding.  And it's inevitable that they will finish last in the NL West once again.   

Ladies and Gentlemen, the San Diego State Aztecs

The world of college basketball was introduced to the San Diego State Aztecs in this years addition of March Madness.  The Aztecs won a tournament game for the first time in school history.  They made it to the Sweet Sixteen, where they battled with college basketball royalty, the University of Connecticut Huskies, up until the final minute, before the Huskies would pull away and advance to the Elite Eight.  Although, they did not win the game, the Aztecs proved they can play among the greatest teams in college basketball. 

Coming into the 3rd round game in Anaheim, none of the experts gave San Diego State a chance.  A call here, a different bounce there, and the Aztecs might be the team playing the Arizona Wildcats with a trip to the Final Four on the line.  Unfortunately, this is not the case. 

In 1999, Steve Fisher became the head coach of a program that was basically non-existent.  The Aztecs had had one winning season in the previous 14 seasons before Fisher arrived.  In just his third year as coach, Fisher lead the team to its first Mountain West Title in school history.  This year, he lead them to its first NCAA tournament victory.  Coach Fisher, who won a National Title at Michigan, has made San Diego State basketball relevant and I doubt he will be satisfied stopping there. 

I heard a talk show radio host in San Diego say what the Aztecs were doing was "special".  I agree, it was a special year for the Aztecs, not because this was a once in a lifetime occurrence, but because it was the first of many to come.  San Diego State has arrived and they are here to stay.  San Diego should be excited of what the Aztecs did and even more excited of what they will do in the future.

National League Central Preview

The National League Central looks wide open and could make it the most exciting division to follow in 2011.  Baseball's only six team division has had a different team win the division in each of the last 3 seasons.  Will this trend continue in 2011?  The level of parody in the NL Central is great, and I believe we will see a fourth straight year in which a new team represents the Central in the National League.

*Teams listed in predicted order of finish.

The Milwaukee Brewers

A team that many experts picked to win the division last year, the Brewers were severely disappointing in 2010, finishing below .500 with a record of 77-85.  After an off season in which the Brewers added the power arms of Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Brewers are ready to live up to their potential and win the NL Central for the first time in team history.  Adding Greinke and Marcum gives the Brewers three aces to their starting rotation, that includes 25 year-old Yovani Gallardo.  Experts say Gallardo has all the makings to be Cy Young caliber pitcher and Greinke has already won the award.  All the talk in baseball is about the Phillies rotation.  This youthful Brewers club may be almost as talented and about a decade younger.  Don't sleep on the Brewers.

While, the Brewers do have much of their core players signed for years to come(Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, and Corey Hart),  the time might be now if they are going to bring a Championship to Milwaukee. Superstar first basemen, Prince Fielder is in the final year of his contract and all indications point to him testing free agency at seasons end.  Fielder will definitely draw interest from big spenders such as the Yankees, Cubs, and Angels.  A small market team such as the Brewers won't stand a chance at re-signing the 26 year-old home run machine.  The Brewers have a team that will compete for years to come, but it will be much easier to win with the services of the Prince. 

The St. Louis Cardinals

Everyone in St. Louis is nervous.  And if they aren't they should be.  The biggest news in the off season for the Cardinals, was bad news.  The team was unable to agree on terms for a contract extension for the 3-time MVP, 9-time all star, arguably the greatest ballplayer of all-time, and without a doubt, the best player in the game today, Albert Pujols.  Prince Albert had a down year, for Pujols standards and still led the league in Home Runs, Runs, and RBIs.  He has had at least 30 home runs, 100 RBI, and a .300 batting average in each of his first 10 seasons.  You know who else has compiled those numbers to start a career?  NO ONE! 

I wasn't in the negotiating room, so I don't know what held up getting an extension done, but if a guys puts up the numbers that Pujols has, you give him what he wants.  Pujols has said he will not talk about his contract during the season as to not be a distraction.  Unfortunately, not knowing if your best player is going to be with the team in the future, will prove to be a vital distraction.  If Pujols makes it to free agency, you know the Yankees will throw $30-40 million a year, cars, boats, planes, statues, just about anything to get him into pinstripes.

I can't imagine Pujols not playing for the Cards, and the last thing baseball needs is for him to go to the Yankees.  I'm a little afraid that's where he'll end up a year from now, and everyone outside of New York should be too.

The Cincinnati Reds
The Reds shocked the world of baseball in 2010, winning the division for the first time since 1995.  In 2011 however, teams will be ready to play when the Reds come to town.  No longer under the radar, the Reds won't have the element of surprise to use as ammunition. 

The Reds made little to no moves in the off season and the team remains basically the same.  Sure, they still have the reigning MVP, Joey Votto and a stellar cast of young hitters including: Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and Jonny Gomes, but I believe it will be a down year in Cincinnati.  Don't fret Reds fans, the Reds are young, talented and will be a contender for many years to come.

The Chicago Cubs
What is going to go wrong for the Cubs this year?  It always seems to be something.  Last year, there were multiple occasions of teammate on teammate violence, usually involving Carlos Zambrano.  Their manager, Lou Pinella stepped down late in the year and more importantly the Cubs finished 5th in the division which includes the lowly Pirates and the struggling Astros.

The Cubs are baseball's most tortured franchise.  They have not won a World Series since 1908.  The last time they played in a World Series was in 1945, when they lost to the Detroit Tigers.  It was in this series in which the Cubs became cursed.  The curse is known as the "Curse of the Goat", and the story goes likes this...

It was game 4 of the World Series and a man by the name of Billy Sianis had two box seats to the game.  Naturally, he brought his pet goat to occupy one of the seats.  Mr. Sianis and his goat got past the ticket collector and security and made it to their seats where they would enjoy the pivotal game 4.  It was a perfect afternoon for the man and his goat, until they were asked to leave, by order of the teams owner.  The cause for ejection was do to the objectionable odor that resonated from the goat.  Outraged by the ejection and the fact the team had insulted his goat, Sianis placed a hex on the Cubs, stating they would never play another World Series game at Wrigley Field.  To this day the Cubs have not been back to the World Series...

The Houston Astros
They are bad... Really bad.... But not as bad as...

The Pittsburgh Pirates
Can you name a single player on the Pittsburgh Pirates?  Me either.  I don't know how the Pirates make a profit year in and year out, but they do.  Their ownership seems satisfied with making that profit and refuse to put any real money into the team.  Winning is not a priority in Pittsburgh.  I feel for the few Pirates that remain, because your team will continue to trade it's best players or let them walk when their contracts are up if it means saving a penny.  The Pirates will likely once again have the lowest payroll in baseball.  In 2010, their payroll was approximately $35 million, or $170 million less than the New York Yankees.  How can they even be expected to compete?  But yeah, baseball not having a salary cap is a good thing.

National League East Preview

Is it really necessary for the National League East to play its games?

The New York Mets are a complete mess, the Washington Nationals are the Nationals, the Florida Marlins spend little to no money, the Atlanta Braves have a new manager for the first time since 1990, and the Philadelphia Phillies are loaded with pitching and tremendous talent.  In the words of Soul Asylum, the Philadelphia Phillies will be a "runaway train never coming back".
*Teams listed in order of predicted finish

The Philadelphia Phillies


They are the favorite to win the World Series.  They are baseball's fastest growing dynasty.  And they will easily take the crown in the NL East for the 5th straight year.  The Phillies have been to two of the last three World Series and won it all in 2008.  Their starting rotation is elite, and may go down as epic.  With the biggest signing in the off season the Phillies added starting pitcher Cliff Lee, to a rotation that already includes 7-time all star and holder of two Cy Young awards, Roy Halladay, 2008 World Series MVP, Cole Hamels, as well as 3-time all star and Gold Medalist, Roy Oswalt.

Phillies shortstop, Jimmy Rollins said he thinks the team will win 100 games and he's probably right.  The Phillies won 97 games last season without the services of Cliff Lee and only had Roy Oswalt for half the year.  With the exception of Jayson Werth heading to this nation's capital to play for the Wahington Nationals, the Phillies line-up is virtually the same.  Each member of their infield has been to an all star game and has won a silver slugger award.  Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard have both taken home MVP awards in last five seasons.  Critics will argue that this infield core are becoming too old to be effective and are injury prone.  In reality, Placido Polanco is the only individual over 32 years old and he has never fallen victim to any sort of significant injury. *knocks on wood*

 Jimmy Rollins suffered a strained calf that landed him on the DL for only the second time in his 11 year career.  Chase Utley battled a sprained thumb as well as a broken finger and still played in 110 games last season.  The truth is these guys are gamers and you can expect to see their names in the line-up more often than not.  This team is filled with veteran experience and they posses more awards than a Golden Globes after party.  In 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to add more hardware to an already crowded trophy case.

The Atlanta Braves

For the first time in 20 seasons, the Atlanta Braves will take the field without legendary manager Bobby Cox calling the shots.  Under the leadership of Cox the Braves went to 5 World Series and brought the title to Atlanta in 1995.  The Braves also won the NL East division a record 11 straight years.  Bobby Cox is 5th on the all time wins list by a manager with 2,504 victories.  Beyond winning, Cox will be missed for his old school attitude and quick temper that put him in the record books for being ejected more times than any other manager in the history of game, quite a feat considering baseball has been played since before 1900.

Replacing him will a be familiar face in Fredi Gonzalez, who was on Cox's coaching staff from 2003-2006 as third base coach, before going on serve as the Flordia Marlins manager for three and a half years until his was fired mid-way through last season after butting heads with Marlins superstar shortstop, Hanley Ramirez.  Remember Jerry Sloan? (See article below) It happens in all sports, folks.  Gonzalez has gigantic shoes to fill and it won't be easy with a team that will exhibit a rookie first baseman, Freddie Freeman and a rookie closer, Criag Kimbrel.

Obviously, the Braves organization have a great deal of confidence in these young men to name them to these critical roster spots.  At 22 years of age, Craig Kimbrel will be asked to finish off opposing teams in the ninth, with the game on the line, all eyes fixated on your every pitch, every movement.  That's enormous pressure for even the most tested big leaguer let alone a kid who still gets IDed when purchasing movie tickets for an R rated film.  

The Florida Marlins

Despite the fact that the Marlins rarely spend money in free agency and almost never resign big name players, they always seem to be in the mix when September rolls around.  They do so through scouting and developing the players from their talent abundant farm system.  They have twice shocked the world and won baseball's ultimate prize behind a payroll that wouldn't pay for all of Lil' Wayne's jewelry.

This off season was no different as Marlin fans watched the team trade one of it's best players, second baseman Dan Uggla to the Atlanta Braves, for super utility man, Omar Infante and pitcher Mike Dunn.  Unlike most trades Florida's front office makes, this one was justified.  They were unable to reach a contract extension with the All Star and instead of letting him walk after the 2011 season and get nothing, the Marlins moved him to Atlanta, picked up Infante, who can play every role from shortstop to left field to nacho vendor.  They also freed up some cash, which they later spent on free agent catcher Jon Buck, as well as locking up the ever improving pitcher Ricky Nolasco to a three year deal.

On paper, the Marlins don't look like the most formidable opponents in baseball, but they never do and they always find a way to compete.  Teams should never overlook the Marlins, because if they do, they will find this scrappy franchise has them hook, line, and sinker.

The New Mets & The Washington Nationals

The Mets organization is in a state of complete discombobulation.  The team may be filing for bankruptcy thanks to their owners possible involvement with the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme.  With claims and settlements pending in the amount of $1 billion, the Mets owner may be forced to sell the team and all its assets.

Word is it has cut its vending staff in half and executives are worried the team might not be able to afford player salaries or even conduct day to day baseball operations.  And I still think they'll finish with a better record than the Washington Nationals.  The Mets front office is a mess, but they have a ton of star power whom can put up giant numbers, as long as they get paid.

The Nationals don't have a whole lot to be excited about either.  Their 2010 number one overall draft pick, phenom Stephen Strasburg, will likely miss the entire 2011 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, preformed September 3, 2010.  They severely overpaid Jayson Werth with a $126 million contract over 7 years.  Werth who turns 32 in May, has never had a batting average above .298, has never knocked in 100 runs, has only hit more than 30 home runs once, and has appeared in only one all star game in his 8 year career.  With poor investing like that, it will a long time until we see this Nationals team breakout out of the cellar in the NL West.

American League West Preview

Baseball's smallest division saw a lot of coming and goings in the off season and we'll see some familiar faces in new places out west.  Which of those faces will have the greatest impact, remains to be seen.  The American League West might be the toughest division, in regards to picking a winner, at least for me.  There doesn't seem to be one team that stands out as being superior.  But I like...

*Teams in order of predicted finish.

The Oakland Athletics

Yes, the Oakland A's will win the AL West and they are my team to watch in 2011.  Oakland over-achieved at the start of last season before fizzling out in the second half of the season, finishing with a .500 record and in 2nd place behind the Texas Rangers.  The A's look improved and built for a run at the post-season in 2011.  This year's team brings a nice mix of young players, ready to showcase their talents and the proven veterans, who we know can get the job done.

The A's strongest link will be their bullpen, which looks to be among the best in baseball.  Anchoring that fierce bullpen will be an up and coming star in Andrew Bailey. Bailey managed 25 saves a year ago despite battling an oblique injury.  The elbow should be fully repaired and word is he will be ready to go, come opening day.  What if Bailey isn't ready?  In the off season the A's signed veteran pitcher, former Angel's closer, Brian Fuentes to be the set up man for Bailey.  If Bailey goes down, Fuentes and his 187 career saves will be waiting to step in and takeover the closers role.  And a backup plan to your backup plan is nice too.  The A's have that in Grant Belfour.  The Australian had a 2.28 ERA in 2010 and is good for a little better than a strikeout per inning pitched.  The A's sure hope they won't have to resort to having Belfour close out games, but as a worst case scenario, it doesn't get much better than Belfour.

On the swinging side of the ball, the A's brought in former World Series MVP, Hideki Matsui.  The A's signed Matsui in hopes of adding a star with leadership ability and some extra pop to a line-up that finished with only 109 home runs a year ago.  Godzilla, along with the new outfield, consisting of David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Coco Crisp will help produce some runs in 2011, but the A's will rely on their pitching, and this pitching staff is geared to take the A's to the head of the class in the AL West.

The Texas Rangers
The Rangers were unable to resign superstar pitcher, Cliff Lee.  Unfortunately, it is impossible to replace a player of Lee's caliber.  Without a bonafied ace, the Rangers starting rotation is little shaky.  CJ Wilson had a terrific year in 2010 going 15-8 in his first year as a starter.  Can he repeat this performance?  Maybe, but what's beyond Wilson?  Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland, and Branden Webb.  Besides Webb most people have never heard of these guys and Webb has pitched a total of four innings since 2008!  Hunter and Holland are young and might become great pitchers one day, but if the Rangers are going to be successful in 2011 that day better be today.

Luckily the Rangers do have reigning MVP Josh Hamilton and a number of other guys, maybe too many, who can hit and score runs.  The  question remains, will there be enough playing time to go around and keep everyone happy.  The big move made by the Rangers in the off season was signing free agent third baseman, Adrian Beltre.  The addition of Beltre displaces longtime Ranger 3B Michael Young, who demanded a trade before spring training started, with no luck.  Young is a professional and did report to spring training with a smile on his face, we'll see if it stays there as the season progresses.  Chances are Young could earn his job back if Beltre struggles.  In 2010, Beltre put up the best numbers of his career, with the exception of the incrediably suspicious power numbers he compiled in 2004 during the tail end of the steroid era, numbers he would never again come close to duplicating.  A few warnings for Rangers fans who are counting on Beltre having a batting average of .321 and knocking 189 hits this year, as he did for the Boston Red Sox a year ago - consider this, any balls that went for doubles or home runs in Boston, will find their way into the fielders gloves in the much more spacious confines of the Ballpark in Arlington.

Last season, Beltre was playing in a contract year, meaning he had a little extra incentive to put up big numbers.  That incentive is non-existent as the Rangers inked Beltre to a five-year $80 million contract.  With that money in the bank, expect Beltre numbers to return to earth and to his career norm, with a batting average of about .265 and  around 150 or so hits.  I can think of better ways to spend $80 million.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Speaking of bad spending, the Angels traded for Vernon Wells and the $86 million he is owed over the next four years.  Wells had a great 2010 and was named an all-star for the first time since 2006.  I would imagine playing in Southern California versus Toronto, where he spent the first nine years of his career, can only help his productivity, but at age 32, Wells isn't getting any younger and that makes it a risky investment for the Angel's front office.

Besides the acquisition of Vernon Wells, the Angels made very few modifications to their ball club.  The Angels have a strong pitching staff and if you've been paying attention, pitching is what wins games.  Fernando Rodney will be the every day closer, after sharing the role with Brian Fuentes last season.  Rodney is capable of getting the job done, he'll just have you biting your nails and hiding behind your t-shirt in the process. 

With Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana as your top three starters, the Angels will compete and win a lot of games.  Don't overlook the Halos because they can easily come out on top in the very winnable AL West.

The Seattle Mariners                            

Dear Seattle,

Please set Ichiro free!

Thank You,

Baseball fans everywhere

It is devastating to watch one of the greatest baseball players of all time waste away in Seattle.  Especially since Ichiro played in Japan until he was 27 and deprived us of watching his entire baseball career unfold.  Since coming to America, Ichiro has had 200+ hits and a batting average of .303 or higher in each of his 10 seasons as a Mariner.  He is one of two men to ever win the Rookie of the Year award and MVP in the same season.  Ichiro is 37 and we are running out of time to witness this once in a lifetime athlete.  He hasn't been to the playoffs since his rookie season, and if he remains in Seattle we will never get to see him take his talents to the post-season again.  A free agent in 2013, maybe he will sign with a contender, we can only hope.