2013-14 NBA Eastern Conference Predictions

         The 2013-14 NBA season has begun and dissimilar to recent seasons the Eastern Conference is littered with threats to dethrone the Miami Heat.  To follow is a breakdown of how I feel the Eastern Conference standings will play out by seasons end. Then I will break down the outcomes of each series, leading to my wildly anticipated pick to be this years Finals representative out of the East.

8 – Atlanta Hawks

      Stuff I like: The Al Horford and Paul Milsap combo and double-teams that will leave Kyle Korver open.  Rebounding. Taking care of the ball will benefit this team and help compensate for the struggles defensively.  The Hawks edge out the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 8^th seed.

      Stuff I don't like: Gaping hole at small forward, where journeyman DeMarre Carroll brings his career 4.2 PPG on 42% from the field to the Hawks starting lineup.  Kyle Korver will slide there in spots, becoming a liability defensively and a one-dimensional offensive threat.  They will lack consistency defensively and will struggle to get even average perimeter performance.  Really thin bench as well.

7 – Milwaukee Bucks

Stuff I like: Great depth and a mostly veteran team.  Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova pose matchup problems for most East teams.  O.J. Mayo will benefit playing in small market Milwaukee because nobody will be watching him, unlike some instances in his playing career.  Luke Ridnour has always been productive and compliments the frontcourt with his ability to stretch the floor. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Undersized backcourt and will struggle to get guard penetration to spoon-feed the bigs.  Brandon Knight will be in a similar situation as he was in Detroit, with a crowded stable of ball-handlers around him.  It wasn’t a situation he thrived in with the Pistons and I don’t see a difference with this Bucks team as constructed. 

6 - New York Knicks

          Stuff I like: Carmelo Anthony is a pure scorer in his prime, and his numbers offensively will be up there amongst the NBA’s best throughout the season.  Raymond Felton is steady but lacks any game-changing qualities.  Andrea Bargnani compliments Melo nicely.  His floor spacing allows Anthony room to operate on the drive and adds a reliable kick out option.  If the Knicks play inside-out and get consistent penetration they are a dangerous offensive team.

         Stuff I don’t like: Tyson Chandler out 3-6 weeks sets them back.  J.R. Smith being a primary scoring option throughout games does not seem to be a recipe for success.  Defensively there are holes everywhere.  I don’t see where Iman Shumpert or Tim Hardaway Jr. fit within the framework of this roster.  The Knicks take a step back and a Melo soap opera regarding his impending free agency keep New York relevant, though they are not a title threat. 

 

5 – Detroit Pistons

         Stuff I like: Greg “Moose” Monroe looks to be a perfect fit at the Power Forward spot, and has been playing like a man that wants a big contract.  Resign him, now.  The Andre Drummond, Monroe, and Josh Smith frontline is only matched by the Pacers, and defensively the Pistons will be able to protect the rim.  Doing so will get the Pistons out in transition with regularity, catering nicely to the athleticism peppered all over this roster.  Brandon Jennings was a savvy signing to compliment this roster, and has made excellent decisions in the early going.  Jennings is also an underrated defensive player and does not have to shoot in volume to help this team win games.  It’s a great fit.

        

Stuff I don’t like: Chauncey Billups is not an NBA starter at this point in his career. The extended minutes he has played early on are troubling, though I anticipate they will decrease as the season progresses.  The bench rotation needs to be addressed and it lacks depth in the frontcourt.  Tony Mitchell is a raw prospect and expectations on his contributions should be tempered.  Jonas Jerebko is too undersized and lacks a clear skill set to play any particular frontline position.  Charlie Villanueva clearly is not good at NBA basketball, leaving little to work with in the frontcourt rotation.  Luigi Datome will eventually assume backup small forward duties, though he will be a liability defensively.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will eventually start at shooting guard, but his learning curve hinders the growth of the Pistons into a finals threat at least for this season.  Poor long-range shooting efficiency will be an Achilles heel as will free-throw shooting. 

4 – Brooklyn Nets

          Stuff I like: An abundance of talent.  Loaded frontcourt. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, playing in complimentary offensive roles, perfectly suited to what they are capable of bringing to the table at this stage of their careers.  Brook Lopez has the complete package as a center.  Deron Williams has four other players on the court with him that can all play the pick and roll two-man game with him.  This lineup works and the chemistry will come quickly. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Age sticks out.  Whether the Nets can hold up and avoid significant injury through the duration of the season will be critical.  Even the supporting cast is largely elderly.  Reggie Evans, Andrei Kirilenko, and Jason Terry all have key roles for the Nets and will need to be healthy and productive if the Nets are to compete at a championship level.

3 – Chicago Bulls

         Stuff I like: The Bulls get one of the NBA’s most dynamic talents back with the return of Derrick Rose.  The Bulls front line is still very imposing on both ends with Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer still very much at the peak of their powers.  The Bulls defend with more intensity than any other team in the East and can now get out in transition with Rose back at the helm. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: D-Rose is going to need some time to return to peak form, which will cost the Bulls seeding in the East.  The Bulls bench is relatively thin, particularly in the frontcourt where Taj Gibson is the only notable contributor.  Mike Dunleavy will not serve as the bench scorer he was enlisted to be, and will rely on being spoon-fed by Rose penetration.  If Dunleavy can get consistent looks on good execution he will still not shoot a high enough percentage to warrant his place in the rotation.  It’s a puzzling fit and I think the signing hurts Chicago this season.  Luol Deng is not an explosive enough player at the small forward position to take pressure off of Derrick Rose late in close games, and perimeter scoring overall will be limited for the Bulls. 

2 – Miami Heat

         Stuff I like: Lebron James is the greatest basketball player on planet Earth and he happens to play for the Heat.  Chris Bosh will have his most impactful season with the Heat. For the first time in his tenure he will be sought out by his teammates to contribute offensively on a consistent basis.  Ray Allen is still playing at a high level, and the Heat know exactly what they are and what they need to do in order to be successful. 

         Stuff I Don’t Like: Lebron's back hurts already.  Contributions from the Heat bench will not be as plentiful this season.  The Heat lack consistent point guard play and they are still soft inside.  Dwyane Wade will continue to regress, and the Heat logged major mileage on their key players through the last 3 seasons.  The Heat will not overpower the top-tier teams in the East with their talent this time around. 

1 – Indiana Pacers

        

Stuff I like: The Pacers have the look of a team that is hell-bent on a Finals run.  They have an unmatched front line with Roy Hibbert, David West, and emerging superstar Paul George.  The have the ‘energy guy’ in Lance Stephenson, and have become one of the deeper teams in the league with the return of Danny Granger, who was injured throughout last season’s conference finals run.  Granger gives the Pacers yet another offensive threat late in close games. 

        

Stuff I don’t like: Guard play is an issue for the Pacers.  They will need more reliable ball-handling in order to dethrone the Heat.  Outside shooting will also need to be more consistent as teams will pack the paint on the Pacers ferocious front line.  It will be interesting to see how the Pacers execute down the stretch of close games now that Paul George is established as a superstar level player.  Their success lies in the framework of the inside-out offense and any deviation from that will spell trouble for the Pacers. 

Playoff Breakdown

Conference Quarterfinals

(1)Indiana over (8)Atlanta: 4-0

-                       -     The all business Pacers will dismantle the Hawks and the overmatched Atlanta bigs will not be able to compete with the superior Pacers frontcourt.  The Pacers handily advance to round 2. 

(4)Brooklyn over (5)Detroit: 4-3

      -    The upstart Pistons get a valuable learning experience in a 7 game slugfest with the Brooklyn Nets, eventually falling to a team with a critical size advantage at point guard.  Deron Williams ability to play with his back to the basket against the pesky Brandon Jennings will pay dividends for the Nets, and veteran Brooklyn big men will keep Andre Drummond in foul trouble and negate his impact, gaining a slight edge over feisty Detroit. 

(3) Chicago over (6)New York: 4-1

     -     The wildly disappointing Knicks will see their season end with a first round exit to the fiercely defensive minded Bulls.  The Melo free agent drama will be a huge distraction as the 2013-14 season comes to a close, and the Knicks will be faced with a pivotal crossroads heading into the 2014-15 season.  The Knicks will have no answer for a revitalized Derrick Rose.  Carlos Boozer will also have stellar performances throughout the series to carry the Bulls.  

(2) Miami over (7)Milwaukee: 4-0

     -     Chris Bosh’s ability to stretch the floor maintains Miami’s prominent offensive advantage in this series.  The Bucks will not be able to contain penetration and the Heat will toy with Milwaukee throughout a one-sided series. 

Conference Semi-Finals

(1)Indiana over (4)Brooklyn: 4-2

   -       On paper this series would seemingly be a 7 game thriller, however the second round will see Brooklyn’s age catching up with their declining SF/PF combination.  Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not be able to sustain high level performances throughout the series and the Pacers stout defense will eventually break the Nets.  Deron Williams will be forced to rely on his jumper and the Nets will struggle to control the paint.  Pacers move on.

(2) Miami over (3)Chicago: 4-3

   -       The most hyped of all the playoff rounds, this date with destiny for Chicago will end equally as sour as their previous attempts to defeat the Heat.  Derrick Rose as the only true scoring option eventually spells the collapse of the Bulls, who will give the Heat a grueling 7 game battle, but fail to come out on top.  Lebron will be too much for even the Bulls defense to handle. 

Conference Finals

(1)Indiana over (2) Miami: 4-3

 -         The rigorous second round series with Chicago will tire Miami, and be to much to overcome facing the brutal physicality of the Pacers. The Pacers will have dedicated their regular season to the goal of home court advantage against the Heat.  It will pay off, as Paul George will out-duel 2013-14 MVP Lebron James in a classic 7 game series for the ages.  The miles will catch up with the Heat’s big three and the Pacers will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.  

Detroit Tigers: 2014 at a Glance

Detroit Tigers fans got an earlier than expected and recklessly violent shove into the period of mourning that is endured after the final out is recorded and the baseball season has officially concluded.  Bewildered by the blows rained down upon them from the baseball gods, Tigers fans watched their team leave Boston having gift-wrapped the Red Sox an AL pennant.  Now the Tigers and their fans are faced with the winter months to imagine what could have been, consider what went wrong, and remain perpetually sulking until the rising temperatures of spring reinstate some semblance of hope again.  A proven and long revered coping mechanism for the infinite sadness that is an ALCS exit is looking to the season ahead.  In this case, the 2014 regular season, and the promise of a Tigers roster that will once again be right in the mix to make a run at a World Series championship. 

Many roster issues contributed to the Tigers departure from the 2013 post-season.  These were issues notable from the on-set of spring training and throughout the course of the entire 2013 campaign.  With an in-depth glance into where the Tigers stand heading into 2014, it is clear that many similar issues will plague this roster moving forward if not addressed in the offseason.  These issues will be established and analyzed here for a very early snapshot of what can be expected from a roster that is in need of some retooling if the 2014 Tigers are to make another deep run into the postseason. 

There are persistent arguments that the offense and its reliance on slugging and big scoring innings is what caused the eventual demise of the Tigers this past season.  These arguments, though not the sole reason the Tigers were eliminated, are legitimate.  The Tigers are a power hitting team and lack the ability to manufacture runs consistently.  The Tigers lack a true base-stealing threat, and are ill-equipped to play any sort of “small-ball” tactics with their current lineup.  Although the offensive lapses and reliance on power reared its ugly head during the 2013 postseason, it is likely that relief pitching will be focus of offseason free agent spending for the Tigers.

Taking a look at the current outlook for both the lineup and pitching, we can begin to assess what the Tigers may prioritize this offseason.  To begin we examine the Tigers lineup.  A lineup that upon struggling offensively through the latter stages of the 2013 season was uncharacteristically tweaked heading into Game 4 of the 2013 ALCS.  Manager Jim Leyland abruptly swapped out his previously solidified lead off man due to the aforementioned lack of speed or any ability to consistently get on base to manufacture runs.  Leyland shuffled the lineup with the hope of getting base runners on from the top of the order.  Fittingly this is where we lead off the 2014 Tigers outlook.   The failure for the top of the order to both get on base and move into scoring position is an issue that will be prominent again in 2014.  

             The question surrounding Austin Jackson, whether he will regain his role and status as the team’s leadoff hitter, is one that shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly.  In jeopardy is the widely accepted perspective that Jackson is a factor in base theft and manufactured runs.  A glaring trend in Jackson’s numbers is his stolen bases, which peaked 4 seasons ago with 28 in his rookie campaign and have since fallen in each successive season.  Jackson had only 8 steals in 2013.  Though not exactly filling the role of ‘speedy lead-off guy’ for the Tigers, there aren’t really any other options here that improve on what Jackson has done.  The same holds true in terms of getting on base, with no other player significantly eclipsing Jackson.  Expect Jackson to once again be the Tigers lead-off hitter in 2014 and for the team to lack a consistent base-stealing threat.  Here are the numbers for Jackson stacked up against other Tigers lead-off candidates:

2013:   (AVG, OBP, OPS)

Austin Jackson: .272/.337/.754

Torii Hunter:  .304/.334/.800

Omar Infante:  .318/.345/.795

Career:

Austin Jackson: .278/.344/.759

Torii Hunter:  .279/.335/.801

Omar Infante:  .279/.319/.721

Johnny Peralta will not be in a Tigers uniform next season.  The Tigers proactively traded for the sure-handed shortstop, Jose Iglesias, when it became clear that Peralta would be suspended for his involvement in the recent Biogenesis allegations.  With shortstop solidified for the long-term, Peralta becomes expendable heading into 2014.  He is not a capable everyday left fielder despite what he brings to the table offensively.  Left field was also a question mark heading into 2013, though Andy Dirks, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Don Kelly all served respectably in the role by committee.  In house candidates to fill this particular void include top Tigers prospect Nick Castellanos, who will undoubtedly be given every opportunity in spring training to earn the job.  In 134 games with the Tigers AAA affiliate, the Toledo Mud Hens, Castellanos hit .276 with a .343 OBP, hit 18 homers and drove in 76 runs in 2013.  Should Castellanos be able to carry his apparent power over to the big leagues he would make an ideal candidate, both in terms of production and financial value, for the Tigers to promote him to their everyday left fielder.  Financially, Castellanos makes the most sense for the Tigers moving forward and fans should not expect any big acquisitions via free agency as was the case when the Tigers enlisted Torii Hunter for right field duties last offseason.  It seems logical that the Tigers will see what they have with Castellanos through spring training and to begin the 2014 season.  There’s always the trade deadline to make a move and sure up that spot should Castellanos prove unready for the promotion.  Notable free agents in the outfield this winter are assumedly none that the Tigers would be interested in pursuing given their current roster and payroll.  Left Field will be inherited by Castellanos or will be once again a platoon effort in 2014. 

That leaves Omar Infante as the Tigers most notable free agent offensively.  At the price Infante is likely to command, it’s a nice fit for the Tigers and there’s every reason to believe the Tigers will pursue a new deal with him.  Omar has seen somewhat of a resurgence offensively in recent years, and in 2013 hit a welcome .318 with 10 homers and drove in 51 runs from the lower third of the lineup.  His value at the position is unquestioned with the ability to hit for average and maintain consistency defensively with his .980 fielding percentage in 2013, compared to the league average of .985.  One variable with resigning Infante is the potential for another team, one a bit more desperate for an upgrade at second base, offering a contract the Tigers may not be willing to match.  A possibility that should not be overlooked given the free agent class at second, headlined by Robinson Cano.  Omar Infante is arguably the next best prize at the position, making the likelihood for suitors more prevalent.  Consider Infante a solid bet to return as a Tiger next year.

Then there’s Prince Fielder.  Well……Fielder speaks for himself.  The Tigers mortgaged a large percentage of their resources on Fielder being a consistent run producer and a game-breaking slugger.  In a post-game interview following Game 5 of the ALCS, Prince Fielder indicated that he is "trying to hit the ball hard".  Despite what Prince says, he is not hitting the ball hard.  Prince advocates may argue the increase in batting average to .295 in two seasons in Detroit from .282 through his tenure with the Brewers merits his value.  However, stats can be deceiving.  Fielder’s .387 on-base-percentage has slightly dropped from the .390 he put up in Milwaukee, coupled with a more alarming .491 slugging percentage in the Old English compared to .540 with the Brew Crew.  With Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez at the peak of their powers, Fielder has the potential to be the Tigers critical "X-factor".  Whether or not the Tigers can reach a World Series championship may be dependent on if Prince can regain the form he displayed as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.  

Without any drastic changes expected on the lineup card for 2014, the focus then turns to another glaring hole on this Tigers roster, relief pitching.  The Tigers have a significant amount of players in their bullpen entering free agency this season, and how the Tigers address these needs will be critical in their prospects for 2014 contention.  Most notably, Joaquin Benoit will pose a dilemma for the Tigers front office as there will certainly be suitors for his services.  A determination will need to be made in regards to his financial worth.  Determining Benoit's value is an interesting conundrum, as his performance during the regular season may afford him leverage.  Benoit posted his best earned run average (2.01) since 2010 when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.  Also, he did so when called upon for an expanded role, as he was asked during the season to take over as the Tigers closer in 2013.  Benoit earned 24 saves in 25 opportunities, solidifying what was a glaring hole at the backend of the Tigers bullpen to begin the regular season.  Similar to the Infante contract situation, Benoit’s services may draw more aggressive offers than the Tigers are in a position to match.  Benoit proved to be a reliable closer this season, and financially it is leverage for Benoit to earn what might be the final 'big' contract of his career.  Bruce Rondon is being groomed as a closer, though in 2013, he posted a 3.45 ERA in just over 28 innings pitched.  With a 9.4 strike-outs per 9 innings rate, Rondon statistically was a slight step down from Benoit’s 9.9 SO/9IP in 2013. With or without Benoit, Rondon will be given another opportunity in 2014 to step into the closer role.  It is unlikely that the Tigers will pursue a free agent closer given Benoit’s track record, his cost vs. the market, and Rondon’s potential long-term. 

Middle relief extending potentially to the set-up role then becomes the focus in free agency for the Tigers.  Lefty free agents to be such as Javier Lopez and Manny Parra may be considered.  The Tigers top minor league prospects do not include any up and coming left-handed saviors, though Darin Downs and Matt Hoffman may be enough for the Tigers to get by in 2014.  Though the Tigers are deeper with righties out of the pen, Jeremy Bonderman and Octavio Dotel will not likely return, leaving some vacancies to be filled this offseason.  Free agents are plentiful as is typical of relief pitching, but there are no premiere names to zero in on to ensure an overall upgrade.  Drew Smyly, Jose Veras (who will have his club option likely picked up by the Tigers) and Al Alburquerque have solidified their spots in the bullpen, but there are concerns with depth and overall strength of the bullpen heading into 2014.  It is also the primary area by which the Tigers could improve via a potential trade, one that will make most Tigers fans wince, though may be the most fiscally sound approach to solving these issues while also improving the team long-term.  Max Scherzer is eligible for arbitration, and is entering the final year of his contract, making him a very viable candidate for trade given his currently undeniable value.  The haul the Tigers could assumedly get back for their Cy Young candidate makes this option all too real to Tigers fans.   An option that may be explored by MLB’s resident trade-master general, Dave Dombrowski, so expect these rumors to persist as the winter meetings approach. 

Overall, the proverbial window is certainly not closed for this AL Central giant heading into 2014.   The Tigers will be in position to make another run at the Central Division title, while pursuing Detroit’s first World Series title since 1984.  They will however have to do so without Jim Leyland, the team’s manager of eight seasons, as Leyland announced his retirement via a news conference on October 21^st, 2013.  One of the most respected individuals in professional sports, Leyland’s presence is a void that cannot be replaced via free agency or through a blockbuster trade.  Leyland’s one of a kind, call a ‘spade’ a ‘spade’ approach to managing while often wearing his heart on his sleeve, (not to mention his 50+ years experience in the game), is something that cannot and will not be replaced this offseason or any other offseason.  The game of baseball lost one of its great managers on Monday, and the Tigers will enter the offseason with a slew of unanswered questions, including who will steer the ship in 2014.  Resume sulking.

Justin "Wild Thing" Verlander?

On October 5^th 2013, Detroit Tigers ace, Justin Verlander, and Oakland A’s rookie sensation, Sonny Gray, put on a pitching duel for the ages. Neither pitcher gave up a run and they combined for 20 strikeouts. The A’s would go on to win Game 2 of the ALDS 1-0, the best of five series was even at one game apiece. During most Tigers games and all playoff games I text with longtime friend and fellow Tigers die hard, Ryan. The texts usually include pessimistic dialogue and sarcastic remarks directed towards our own players. This game was no different. Early in the game we were nervous. If you follow baseball you know Justin Verlander wasn’t exactly himself this year. We were waiting for him to blow it. As innings passed our excitement grew and we noticed something very interesting: Justin Verlander was Rick Vaughn.

If for some reason you have not seen the Major League movies, starring Charlie Sheen as Rick Vaughn, at least hundred times, well shame on you. But I will quickly summarize the first movie before diving into the sequel, where our comparisons begin.

Major League, the first installment of the movie trilogy, is centered around a bunch of outcasts, has-beens, and forgotten professional baseball players who make up the budget-less Cleveland Indians. As you can probably predict, since it’s a Hollywood scripted story, this rag tag bunch of nobodies overcame the seemingly insurmountable odds and claimed the glory that comes with winning the pennant.

Which leads us to Major League 2. No longer under the radar, the Cleveland Indians are now full of superstars. The former nobodies were now finding themselves shooting commercials, making movies, and going to lavish parties. The added attention takes a toll on the team as they struggle to perform on the field. These struggles are particularly evident in the former pitching stud, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn.

In 2011 Justin Verlander won both the Cy Young and MVP awards, a feat that has only been accomplished by 7 other men in the history of professional baseball. After his historic season, in which he won 24 games and struck out 250 batters, both good enough to lead the majors, Verlander became recognized as the greatest pitcher on earth. He was compensated as such and the endorsement deals popped up faster than Prince Fielder in a clutch-hitting situation. JV, as us Tiger fans refer to him, also started dating supermodel Kate Upton. This was the beginning of his demise.

Similarly, in Major League 2, Rick Vaughn began shooting commercials and dating models. He became more interested in his wallet and appearances, and less interested in perfecting his craft. Vaughn could no longer throw a fastball, or as he puts it in the film, “I can’t believe I forget how to throw the heat.”

In 2013 the average speed of Verlander’s devastating fastball dropped about 4mph, through much of season. Which may not sound like a whole lot, but ask David Ortiz if he’d rather see a 97mph fastball or a 93mph fastball, and he’ll adamantly state the latter.

It was a sad year. JV had lost his fastball and began trying to compensate by throwing an absurd amount of curveballs that simply did not curve. Opposing hitters were smashing Verlander’s pitches like an angry Bruce Banner. It was apparent to Tiger’s fans that JV had become more concerned with making out with the hot supermodel and checking his stock portfolio, that he forgot his roots. The once untouchable Verlander was human, hell he looked average at best. But a movie can’t end with the protagonist walking down a lonely road of shame, can it?

The Indians made the playoffs despite their struggles and found themselves in a battle with the Chicago White Sox. Vaughn, disgusted at the corporate puppet he had become, vowed to regain his rightful position as the dominant force in pitching.

As “Wild Thing” by The Troggs blares throughout the stadium speakers Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn emerges from the bullpen. Equipped with his cut-off leather jacket, skull and crossbow bedazzled eyeglasses that fans had loved from the original Major League flick, the Indians stud had returned. Long story short, Vaughn dominated and everybody lived happily ever after.

October 10^th, 2013. Game 5. The Detroit Tigers versus the Oakland A’s in Oakland, California. The winner moves on to the ALCS to face the powerful Boston Red Sox, the loser goes home and starts booking vacation plans for the winter. The season is on the line and the burden of pressure falls on the shoulders of Justin Verlander.

We all know what happened. Verlander carved through the A’s like a top prized jack-o-lantern at the county fair. JV had transformed back to his dominant self that had propelled him into superstardom. The events unfolded like a perfectly polished Hollywood script that Ron Howard would be proud to direct. Justin Verlander had remembered how to throw the heat.

MLB - Midseason Report

One half of the 2011 MLB season is in the books and it has been nothing short of incredible.  Every division is separated by fewer than 4 games.  There have been multiple surprise teams, including the Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Arizona Diamondbacks, all of whom are within striking distance of first place.

After starting the year 0-8, the Boston Red Sox have made a tremendous surge and sit a game up on the New York Yankees in the ultra competitive AL East.

It's been a long time since baseball has seen this kind of parody.  No matter what city you live in, you can feel confident that your team can compete and win a game on any given night. (Unless you are a fan of the Chicago Cubs, in which case it's probably better to just stay home.)

My pre-season predictions are mostly still in play, except that the Oakland Athletics have already fired their manager, so he won't be winning the "AL Manager of the Year" and the A's probably won't be winning the pennant in the AL West.  My predictions for AL MVP and Cy Young are right on the mark as Adrian Gonzalez, of the Boston Red Sox, has been killing in his new home, Fenway Park,  and leads the league in RBI, hits, and batting average.  The Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander, has been nearly un-hittable, and threw a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays on May, 8th, earlier this year.  JV is the early favorite to win his first Cy Young award.

On the NL side of things, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, Roy Halladay has continued his dominance that we have come to expect and along with Verlander, is the best pitcher in baseball.  Colorado Rockies star, Troy Tulowitzki has gotten off to a lackluster start, but has been amazing with the glove and is one of the most exciting players in the game to watch in person.  My prediction for NL Manager of the Year, Ron Roenicke has the Milwaukee Brewers tied for first in the NL Central.  The second half of the season is going to be exciting to say the least.  But before the second half starts let's hand out some mid-season awards.

AL MVP

Hands down it's Adrian Gonzalez.  The big big big big big trade made by the Boston Red Sox has been paying the Red Sox back with pure gold, batting .354, with 77 RBI, and 128 hits, all tops in the AL. Baseball fans everywhere are lucky that Gonzalez was rescued from baseball purgatory that is the San Diego Padres, and fans across the nation now have the chance to see the awesome talent he possesses.

Honorable Mention
Jose Bautista continues to crush home runs as he did in 2010, proving that his power was no fluke.  To go along with his Major League leading 31 big flys, "Joey Bats" picked up a new trick.  He has learned to hit for average.  Bautista is currently batting .334, almost 75 points higher than his total of .260 a year ago.

NL MVP
There are plenty of deserving individuals in the NL and it's tough to peg down one guy that clearly exceeds his peers as the sole MVP.  If forced to name an MVP today, I'd pick Lance Berkman of the St. Louis Cardinals.  Many thought his career was quickly coming to an end after a couple of disappointing seasons.  But halfway through the 2011 season, Berkman has already eclipsed his totals in Home Runs, RBIs, and runs from a year ago.  The National League Home Run leader has also carried the Cardinals into a tie for first place in the NL Central, while Albert Pujols has battled injuries and an uncharacteristic slow start.  Without Berkman's contributions, the Cardinals would not be atop the standings.  Therefore, Lance Berkman is the MVP in NL.

Honorable Mentions
Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers are both having outstanding years offensively and are too huge reasons why the Brew Crew is tied with the Cardinals for the lead in the NL Central.

Jose Reyes of the New York Mets is having a career year.  He's batting .354 with 124 hits, both bests in the NL.  With the Mets 11 games out of first place, and currently sitting third in the NL East, I can't rationalize Reyes as the MVP.

AL and NL Cy Young

Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay.  Once again it seems to be the year of the pitcher in Major League Baseball.  JV and the Doc are the hottest pitchers in the universe putting up phenomenal numbers.  Both have double digit wins, both have ERAs under 2.50.  More than that, as Detroit Tigers announcer often calls Verlander, these guys are must see TV.  On any given night, one of these guys could throw a no-htter.  There are many pitchers having fantastic seasons on an array of different teams, but none of them can touch Verlander and Halladay.

If the finish to the 2011 MLB season is anything like the first half, baseball fans are in line for a thrilling ride.

*Standings and stats are as of the All-Star break.

The Ice has Melted for Paul Kariya

On July 29th, 2011,  Paul Kariya called it a career after 15 seasons in the NHL.  Kariya missed all of the 2010-2011 season due to a concussion he suffered in December of 2009, in which he took an elbow to the head by Buffalo Sabre's winger, Patrick Katela.  Doctors haven't been able to clear Kariya to play and a recent brain scan showed continued signs of brain damage.  With no choice, Paul Kariya is forced to walk away from the game he loves.


Paul Kariya was drafted 4th overall by the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim in 1993.  Along with Teemu Salanne, Kariya made hockey relevant in Southern California.  Not exactly the most ideal destination for a NHL franchise, Kariya and Salanne had the then, Arrowhead Pond of Anaheim rocking on a nightly basis.  The exciting duo created a buzz in Orange County, and helped hockey become popular among the young and the old. Everywhere you went in the OC, you would see kids playing street hockey.  Kariya and Salanne jerseys were everywhere and all the kids I knew had a Mighty Ducks duck caller, myself included, that were sold at games and local sporting good stores.

Kariya served as the Ducks team captain for 7 years, before going to the Colorado Avalanche, with Salanne in 2004.  Kariya was a 6 time all-star, won a Gold Medal with team Canada in 2002, and also won the NCAA National Championship at the University of Maine.

Kariya had a solid NHL career, unfortunately it was cut a little short.  I attended many Ducks games in the mid 90's and I will always remember Kariya and the impact he made on hockey and the community. The Ducks should retire his number and I look  forward to it happening.  Quack-Quack-Quack!!!  

NBA Draft Recap- I Want to be like Dirk

The 2010-2011 season is over.  The Dallas Mavericks played the role of Cinderella as they defeated the evil stepmother, LeBron James and the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.  Dirk Nowitzki finally got his ring and will go down as one of the all-time greats.

Great! That was last year.  And for fans of teams not from Dallas, it's time to look toward next season, starting with the draft.  The addition of young guys to build a team around or for some, just adding the missing ingredient and becoming a contender.

The Cleveland Cavaliers had the privilege of having the first overall pick in draft.  The first time since taking Lebron James in 2003.  Unfortunately for the Cavs, there was no LeBron in the draft this year.  No sure thing, no definite game changer, no king.  Nonetheless, they still had to take someone - their pick: Kyrie Irving out of Duke.

Irving might become a solid player some day, but I don't believe he is number one overall pick caliber today.

One, he was injured most of his freshman and lone year at Duke, playing in only 11 games.  He is by no means proven.  The Cavs currently have four point guards on the roster, including Irving.  For a team trying to get past the destruction left by the departure of LeBron James, I think they could have used the pick more wisely.

Say, on the second overall pick, made by the Minnesota Timberwolves, Derrick Williams out of Arizona.  Williams put his talents in the spotlight during Arizona's NCAA Tournament run.  And it was impressive.  The guy can play both ends of the floor, dunks with authority, blocks shots, and plays physical.  If I had the number one pick, I would have taken Williams.  But I don't run an NBA franchise, so what do I know.

The European Invasion - I want to be like Dirk!
Four of the next five picks would be players from overseas.  It appears as though teams are looking for the next European sensation following the epic title run and victory by the German born Dirk Nowitzki.  As Joe Dumars can remind you, it's hard to spot how talent from foreign land will translate into the NBA.  Remember when Darko Milicic was taken second overall by the Detroit Pistons, behind LeBron James and ahead of stars like Dwayne Wade, Chris Paul, and Chris Bosh to name a few?  To say that Darko was a disappointment is an understatement.  He was down right disastrous.  Of course not all European players are going to be flops, but it's a gamble at the highest of stakes.  Good luck to the new wave of Euros joining the NBA ranks, you're going to need it.

Kemba and Jimmer
Kemba Walker, NCAA Tournament MVP and UCONN star was taken eighth overall by the Charlotte Bobcats.  At the seventh pick the Detroit Pistons passed on Kemba and went with another guard in Brandon Knight from Kentucky.  As a Pistons fan, this made me very sad.  Kemba is a proven leader and a winner.  He lead the UCONN Huskies to a perfect post-season record, winning the Big East Tournament followed by the "Big Dance", the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, Kemba beat Knight and the Kentucky Wildcats in the semi-finals of the tournament.  I love Joe Dumars, but his luck has run out and it's time he go.

The next pick at number nine and heading to the Sacramento Kings was Jimmer Fredette out of BYU.  Everyone knows Jimmer can shoot.  And he can also....  Well, he's a good shooter.  He's never played defense.  He can't really create shots without the ball in his hand and he's not a true point guard.  Conclusion: his game doesn't transate to the NBA.  He will be the Tim Tebow of the NBA.  Most people will be rooting for him, but he'll never have a dramatic impact on the game.  However, he's the perfect pick for the Sacramento Kings.  The Kings were trying to leave town following the 2010-2011 season because the owners wanted a new arena.  But, as of now they are staying in California's capital for at least one more year while they try and figure out a solution to the arena problem.  Jimmer will sell seats, jerseys, and popcorn.  He's a fan favorite and following the draft, the Kings season ticket sales saw an increase in revenue.  This will work for the Kings for a season, until everyone realizes Jimmer is more like Adam Morrison than Jim Morrison.

All in all, it was a fairly weak draft year that provided a few story lines and little hype.  Only time will tell exactly how good this years draft prospects are, but I wouldn't hold my breathe in anticipation.
   

Why Isn't Roger Maris in the Hall of Fame?

This question has perplexed me ever since I found out that Roger Maris wasn't in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  I had always just assumed that Maris, rightfully so, was a Hall of Famer.  An assumption I believe is fair and shared by many sports enthusiasts, such as myself.

The obvious reason why Maris belongs in the Hall of Fame, is the fact that in 1961 he broke Babe Ruth's single season home run record by hitting his 61st home run of the year on the final day of the season, besting Ruth by one long ball.  A feat so enormous that Billy Crystal made a movie about it titled 61*. (One of my favorite movies, and I hate the Yankees.)  Maris' record would stand for 37 years, until a chemically enhanced monster known as Mark McGwire, would shatter the record by belting 70 homers in a single season.  Later, an even more drugged up Barry Bonds would hit 73 home runs, and eventually it would come out that all these guys who were hitting 500 foot home runs on the regular, were on steroids, HGH, and estrogen (a female hormone supplement).  McGwire would hit 65 bombs following his 70 homer season, before walking away from the game only a few years before Jose Canseco blew the whistle on steroids and starting naming names, including his long time teammate McGwire.  Bonds, who still holds the single season record with 73, would never hit more than 49 in a season again, even with the assistance of lots and lots steroids, HGH, and whatever else he could get his hands on.

I still consider Roger Maris the single season home run leader.  No player outside of the steroid era has matched or broke 61 home runs in a single season.  Since, Major League Baseball instituted a drug testing policy in 2006, the most home runs hit in a season were 58, hit by Ryan Howard in the same year and only 3 other men, David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, and Jose Bautista ever broke 50!

Today's athletes are bigger, stronger, and faster.  They have more access to trainers and state of the art workout regimens and equipment.  Still, Maris' mark, set in 1961, hasn't been touched (by someone not overflowing with drugs) and probably won't be anytime soon.

If the home run record isn't enough to get Roger Maris in the Hall of Fame, then maybe the fact that he won back-to-back MVP awards in 1960 and 1961 while with the New York Yankees.  Only four players have won the award in consecutive years since Maris did.  Of the 5 that accomplished this milestone prior to Maris, all of them are in the Hall of Fame.  He played in 7 World Series, winning the Championship 3 times - twice with the Yankees and once with the St. Louis Cardinals.

It is well documented that Roger Maris and the media didn't get along.  The media, particularly the Baseball Writer's of America, are the ones who vote for the Hall of Fame.  Am I saying Roger didn't get in because of personal differences?  Yes.

He may not have had the lovable personality of Micky Mantle or a modern day Shaq.  He may not have 15 years of remarkable stats and awards.  But what Roger Maris does have is arguably the greatest season ever played in 1961.  A season that consisted of 61 home runs, an MVP, and his first World Series ring.  In my mind that's enough to be called a Hall of Famer.

Maris' name no longer appears on the Hall of Fame ballot.  The only way he can get in now, is if MLB grants him an entry.  If you know anything about MLB, you know it would take hell freezing over, pigs flying, and Alex Rodriguez admitting to using steroids.  Not likely.

Roger Maris: Hall of Famer*